Gestalt #203

Vlad’s futile warnings

Putin is issuing scary nuclear war warnings on almost a daily basis. I don’t think he is bluffing. I think he may actually use tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. However, his warnings will not achieve his goal of influencing the US public for one simple reason – the US media isn’t reporting them. Had these same warnings been given by a Russian leader back in the 1950s through the early 1990s, they would have received tremendous publicity. Americans would have been digging fallout shelters and moving out of cities or launching massive “give peace a chance” rallies depending on their individual inclinations. Now, the American public has no idea what is going on in Europe other than that there is a war in Ukraine. The days when you would have news bureaus staffed with knowledgeable reporters in foreign capitals are over. Now, you have the occasional trust fund recipient playing foreign correspondent to impress his friends who reports whatever he wants when he wants because he doesn’t cost the Networks anything. Even simple web searches would provide far more information than you will see on the news. A true picture of the threats facing us would be bad for advertisers, and most News organizations won’t cover anything that would disturb the buying public. So, Vlad, threaten away. Then watch our news. Your bone-chilling warnings won’t be covered. Instead, you can relax and watch yet another scintillating report about Taylor Swift.

Hiding H5N1 Human Cases – Biden administration policy?

The CDC has prohibited studies of wastewater from hospitals which would allow us to determine if H5N1 is infecting people as well as animals. The CDC only monitors wastewater from locations where the source of H5N1 could have been animals or people. The CDC and FDA are deliberately creating barriers to clinical testing for H5N1. Is it possible that the Biden administration is not simply doing a bad job of tracking H5N1 cases in humans, are they actively attempting to prevent the US public from finding out how many H5N1 cases in humans are occurring? Is this an attempt to keep a lid on bad news until after the election in November? I think this is possible.

First a whimper, then a bang

I have recently done a personal study of fast food restaurants. It started with one bad experience and then became an intentional survey of multiple chains in multiple States. Something is going on, in my opinion. Food quality has decreased dramatically and orders are frequently screwed up. It is clear that the quality control measures that used to be in place in chain restaurants, which is the only reason anyone ever ate at them, have been abandoned. Restaurants are not being inspected by health agencies. This is apparent to anyone who has seen what their kitchens look like or gotten sick after eating at one of these formerly safe restaurants. This erosion of quality and safety extends to many domains. Predatory businesses are preying on older people and the less well-educated without restraint or fear of prosecution. Prescription drugs are more expensive than they need to be and harder to obtain. So hard, that some people may actually be dying while jumping through unnecessary hoops to get them. What is the Bureau of Consumer Protection doing? What is the Attorney General doing? What is OSHA doing? Nothing, as far as I can tell. When such and such country is labeled as “third world”, many people mean an unsafe place with low standards and a lot of corruption. This increasingly describes the United States. The perception of the US in other countries is not what most Americans think it is. People in many other countries are increasingly viewing the US as lacking in the rule of law, as unsafe and corrupt. Our enemies sense weakness in our low standards and increasing disunity. This may encourage them to attack us. Whimper now, bang later.

References

Putin Issues Nuclear Warning to West. June 21, 2024. Isabel van Brugen. Newsweek.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-nuclear-doctrine-weapon-use-west-nato-1915765

From sewage to safety: Hospital wastewater surveillance as a beacon for defense against H5N1 bird flu. May 1, 2024. Denis Nash, John Dennehy, Monica Trujillo, and Leopolda Silvera. STAT.
https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/01/h5n1-bird-flu-hospital-wastewater-surveillance/

Experts blast CDC over failure to test sewage for signs of H5N1 bird flu virus. Susanne Rust. Los Angeles Times. May 10, 2024.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-05-10/experts-blast-cdc-over-refusal-to-test-sewage-for-signs-of-h5n1-bird-flu-virus

‘We’re Flying Blind’: CDC Has 1M Bird Flu Tests Ready, but Experts See Repeat of Covid Missteps. June 20, 2024. Amy Maxmen. KFF Health News.
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/cdc-bird-flu-tests-covid-repeat-concerns/

My Health Insurance Company Is Trying To Kill Me. Jonna Jerome. The Huffington Post. June 22, 2024.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/health-insurance-no-surprises-medical-debt_n_665cdbb5e4b01ea28f32c18f

How PBMs Are Driving Up Prescription Drug Costs. Rebecca Robbins and Reed Abelson. The New York Times. June 21, 2024.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/business/prescription-drug-costs-pbm.html

Gestalt # 201

Dr. Morens Speaks

The following are a selection of quotes from emails written by Dr. Morens, senior advisor to Dr. Fauci. In the emails below, “Tony” refers to Dr. Fauci. “Peter” refers to Dr. Daszak. Most of these emails are in reference to EcoHealth Alliance, led by Dr. Daszak, and the grant money it received from the NIH and funneled to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. FOIA stands for Freedom of Information Act. This is the act which allows any US citizen to obtain unclassified information held by the federal government.

In his own words, Dr. Morens:

You are right, i need to be more careful. However, as i mentioned once before, i learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am foia’d but before the search starts, so I think we are all safe. Plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail.

The best way to avoid FOIA hassles is to delete all emails when you learn a subject is getting sensitive.

PS, i forgot to say there is no worry about FOIAs. I can send stuff to Tony on his private gamil,or hand it to him at work or at his home. He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.

I suggested Arthur try to interview Tony directly and connected him to our “secret” back channel. He emailed Tony a few hours ago.

email from Morens to Daszak and Keusch—with the subject line “NIH awards $7.5 million grant to EcoHealth Alliance, months after uproar over political interference”

Ahem … do I get a kickback???? Too much f*g money! DO you deserve it all?

Peter from Tony’s numerous recent comments to me, and from what Francis [Collins] has been vocal about over the past 5 days, they are trying to protect you, which also protects their own reputations.

You may be amused at the following aside that was a big surprise to me. He [Dr. Fauci] was asking my opinion about what is wrong with CDC and in the process said, out of the blue, that it was HE who got Rochelle Wolensky her job as CDC director by lobbying for her to Ron Klain.
Well, she does wear a skirt… I poured a little cold water on her
but he was undeterred in thinking she is the cat’s pajamas…

Waste, Fraud and Abuse in the US Military

A former U.S. Navy vice chief of naval operations has been arrested on charges that he accepted bribes to steer work to a company while he was commander of naval forces in Europe and Africa, Justice Department officials said in a Friday statement.

Robert Burke, 62, of Coconut Creek, Florida, along with two business executives, Yongchul “Charlie” Kim and Meghan Messenger of New York, were each charged with bribery and conspiracy to commit bribery, according to an indictment unsealed on Friday.

“Burke is also charged with performing acts affecting a personal financial interest and concealing material facts from the United States. If convicted, Burke faces a maximum penalty of 30 years in prison, and Kim and Messenger each face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison,” the statement said.

Former vice chief of naval operations arrested on bribery, conspiracy charges. Bradley Peniston, Defense One. May 31, 2024.

Meghan Messenger and Yongchul “Charlie” Kim are senior executives at a company called “Next Jump“. After reading content at their web page, I found it difficult to determine what they actually do. Their website is filled with psychobabble about “leadership” and “decision-making”. They apparently offer “training” to improve decision making. Seems like patent BS, to me. In addition to the US Navy, they also list the US Air Force as a customer. Given the recent arrests, I think one can fairly ask whether anyone in the US Air Force was also involved in improper behavior.

Setting aside the bribery charges, why does the US Air Force and the US Navy need leadership lessons from such a BS company? Shouldn’t the US Air Force and US Navy be giving leadership lessons in their own training and by example? Do they not know how to do this anymore?

There is serious rot in the US military. We have “powerpoint” generals who need lessons in leadership from BS, psychobabble companies instead of people who lead by example. There are members of the US military who have led their troops into battle and prevailed in difficult circumstances. Shouldn’t generals and admirals ask proven combat veterans how to lead? Vast sums of money are being wasted on companies like “Next Jump” while enlisted personnel struggle to feed their families. Just so sickening.

Gestalt #197

H5N1 virus has been found at very high levels in milk. Is it safe? We don’t know.

There is no data on whether or not pasteurization inactivates the virus. There is no indication that there will be any such studies.

Three and a half weeks after first announcing the startling news that cows from a milking herd in Texas had tested positive for H5N1, the government agencies involved in the investigations have not yet revealed what research shows about whether pasteurization of milk kills this specific virus.

Helen Branswell, STAT News, April 18, 2024

H5N1 is spreading cow to cow and cow to poultry. Pigs are at risk.

Virus has been found in nasal swabs from cows, so it could be spreading to the respiratory systems of cows. Pigs, which are mixing vessel that are known to produce human adapted strains of flu virus, are not being tested for H5N1.

Pigs are a linchpin in flu surveillance, many experts noted, as they are susceptible to both bird and human flu. They might act as “mixing bowls,” enabling H5N1 to acquire the ability to spread efficiently among people.

The U.S.D.A. is not testing pigs or asking farmers to do so, Dr. Sifford said.

Apoorva Mandavilli, Emily Anthes NY Times, April 19, 2024

We may be closer to nuclear war than is realized

Iran has everything it needs to make nuclear weapons within a few months.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/iaea-chief-says-iran-could-produce-nuclear-weapon-within-months-209316933854
NBC News, April 19, 2024

Gestalt #196

Nuclear War – A review

I read the book “Nuclear War” by Annie Jacobsen in one day. This fictional scenario was better written than most thrillers. Plot spoilers ahead. The book does not have a happy ending. The great strength of the book is its meticulous description of the procedures that would govern our response should the United States come under nuclear attack. These are quite frightening as they appear to be antiquated and not suitable for the 21st Century. The author suggests, and I agree, that even if a nuclear war begins “small”, it will likely expand to large scale launch of many nuclear weapons. There are just too many potential failure points and too little time to make decisions to stop at a limited war. Where I disagree with the author is her assumption of a nuclear winter that lasts five years. Maybe this will happen, but I don’t think this is the consensus. The truth is, we really don’t know what will happen. Certainly, some level of cooling will occur for at least a few months, which, in itself, will be devastating to countries that must import food to survive. However, the dire prediction that she makes is not well-supported by the available evidence. There are lots of activists pushing the same scenario. I get that she wants people to be scared enough to try avoid nuclear war. But frankly, there isn’t much her readers can do about stopping it from happening. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un are the men who will decide whether or not to start a nuclear war, not us. They are not smart or especially rational men. They are all megalomaniacs who live in echo chambers surrounded by eunuchs who tell them exactly what they want to hear. We can’t control what they do. However, we can decide to survive what they do. The truth is that deaths due to famine from nuclear winter will be unequal. Countries dependent on external inputs will do the worst. Countries that are well-prepared and self-sufficient in food production will do the best.

Where is Cesar Chavez when you need him?

For those who don’t know, Cesar Chavez was a labor activist who advocated on behalf of Mexican farm workers. He sought better working conditions for people who had been exploited by agribusinesses. Right now, farm workers in the dairy industry are being exposed to H5N1 without adequate protection. Farm equipment is thought to be aerosolizing contaminated milk. This is thought to be how the one documented human case occurred. How many undocumented cases have there been? We don’t know because no one is bothering to check on the farm workers many of whom are themselves, undocumented. Do the “liberals” in the media care? Don’t make me laugh. They could not care less. Evidence: how many stories do you see of uber wealthy elites like Anderson Cooper going down to the farms and exposing the lousy working conditions for workers. Do the “liberals” in Congress or the White House care? Please, stop. I need to breathe. Evidence: the White House controlled-CDC has done absolutely nothing to help get PPE or H5N1 tests to the farm workers. “Liberals” don’t really care about the poor or working class.

Where is Ronald Reagan when you need him?

President Reagan, regardless of what you think of his policies on other issues, was a strong foe of the Soviet Union and the threat it represented to the free world. He must be turning in his grave to see Members of Congress who call themselves “conservatives” kissing up to Vladimir Putin, a man who seeks to re-establish the Soviet Union that Reagan helped dismantle. Win one for the Gipper? Not these clowns. They’re Red alright. Commie Red. Make careful note of who votes against helping Ukraine prevent the rebirth of the Soviet Union and you will know who the Communist Sympathizers are. Or worse. People who have betrayed the US – for what?

Gestalt #139 – The Soothers

I see some OSINT blogs, which used to be reliable, are now using terms like “the Doomers”. Gosh, really, this is still a thing?

A few years ago, “the Doomers” warned about a coming pandemic that would kill millions of people and damage the global economy. Some of them even warned that it would come out of China. “The Soothers” mocked the Doomers for suggesting such a crazy thing. Who was right?

Now the Doomers are warning about even more deadly viruses, nuclear war, EMPs and threats to our food supply. The Soothers, which now apparently include prominent OSINT twitter personalities, dismiss these possibilities with the same mocking attitude of the pandemic-will-be-bad deniers.

Let’s consider the facts, shall we?

Viruses

H5N1 (bird flu) came of China in 1997. There was a massive cover up in China that resulted in many unnecessary deaths.

SARS-CoV-1 came out of China in 2002. There was a massive cover up in China that resulted in many unneccesary deaths.

H1N1 (swine flu) suddenly appeared in North America in 2009 and caused a pandemic. It’s origins were never definitively established.

MERS was reported in the Middle East in 2012.

Ebola infected Americans in America in 2014.

SARS-CoV-2 came out of China in 2020. There was a massive cover up in China that resulted in over 6 million dead world-wide including over 1 million dead in the United States. Long Covid has caused long term disability in many millions more.

A more infectious form of monkeypox suddenly appeared in Europe and the US in 2022.

H5N1 (bird flu) acquired a key mutation necessary to spread mammal-to-mammal in 2022. It kills nearly 100% of all birds it infects. It kills at least 50% of all humans it infects, even with high level health care. Many virologists believe that the virus is only one step away from being able to transmit human-to-human, sustainably.

Nuclear War

Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Putin strongly hints he is willing to use nuclear weapons to prevail in the war. Many of his supporters, in the Russian government, openly call for nuclear weapons to be used against Ukraine, European countries that aid Ukraine and the United States. Russia is also developing a cobalt warhead which could be used to make large areas of the United States unihabitable by most forms of life for decades.

China was found to have 400 nuclear warheads in 2022 and expected to have 1500 by 2035. In 2021, China tested hypersonic missiles capable of reaching anywhere in the United States in a few minutes. China has threatened Taiwan, Japan, Australia and India. There is currently at least one high-atmosphere balloon over the United States that is visiting each of our most sensitive sites related to retaliation in the event of nuclear war.

North Korea has nuclear weapons, is developing ICBMs capable of hitting the United States and is threatening to use them against South Korea, Japan and the United States.

Iran is developing nuclear weapons and may have warheads and delivery systems soon.

Pakistan is undergoing a severe economic crisis in 2023. It has nuclear weapons. Pakistan has almost gone to war with nuclear power India on several occassions. Pakistan has close ties to Islamic fundamentalist terrorists. Its nuclear weapons are not considered secure.

Japan and South Korea are seriously considering the development of nuclear weapons to defend themselves. Europe is arming up. Countries that don’t currently have access to nuclear weapons are likely planning to acquire them (supposition).

Electromagnetic Pulses (EMPs)

Numerous experiments have demostrated the technical feasibility of using a high atmospheric nuclear burst to destroy electronic equipment in a widespread area. If the Grid were destroyed in North America, most Americans would die within a year (of freezing to death, starvation, rioting, etc.) One of the platforms that was predicted to be used to deliver this weapon was a high-altitude balloon. Did I mention that there is a Chinese high-altitude balloon over the United States as I write this?

Food supply insecurity

Chicken prices are high. Egg prices are high. This is because H5N1 is killing millions of chickens. H5N1 is now spreading mammal-to-mammal in mink farms. It is not much of a stretch to consider that H5N1 might spread pig-to-pig in hog lots or bovine-to-bovine in large dairy farms and cattle feed lots. Well, we can just eat vegetables you say. What vegetables?, I say. Huge amounts of our productive agricultural land is devoted to plants that cows and pigs can eat but which humans cannot eat. Switching over to production of a balanced set of vegetables that humans could eat would take years, maybe decades. That’s a long time to go without eating.

The Making of a Soother

Some soothers are born. They don’t want to think about anything bad so they simply deny that bad things can happen. It’s a psychological defense mechanism. However, many soothers are paid, not made. Risk communicators like Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard are paid huge sums of money to soothe the public, sometimes by directly contacting humble bloggers who are considered “influencers”. Other Soothers are made in much less expensive ways. They are invited to DC, given a rubber chicken dinner and flattered. For some, that’s enough. They’ll now parrot whatever the government line is – in the public interest, you understand. Others may want a bit more. A better retirement; a better internship; a promised government job. Not too costly, for what you get.

Whenever you have to decide who to listen to, a Soother or a Doomer, just ask yourself: who has the facts on their side?

One last thing. I do not consider myself a “Doomer”. I’m a Prepper. That means I prepare so that I’m NOT doomed. You know who is doomed? The Soothers, and the people who listen to them.

Gestalt #138 – The Crisis Economy and the End of the Office-Cities

The pandemic crisis launched us all on a grand experiment: remote work. What were the results?

On November 9, 2022, Elon Musk, new owner of Twitter banned remote work.

He has since changed his mind:

As part of ongoing cost-cutting measures under new owner and CEO Elon Musk, Twitter is shutting down its Seattle offices and its Singapore officers, instructing employees to work remotely. That’s despite Musk earlier claiming that remote workers are only “pretending to work” and banning remote work at Twitter upon taking it over in early November.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky, Forbes, January 23, 2023

Why the change? One reason. Money.

I have read many arguments against remote work: Workers will be lazy if they aren’t in the office; Office work is better for team building, etc. What I have not heard is that companies are less profitable if workers work remotely. Why not? Isn’t the purpose of a company to make money? In the end, isn’t this the only thing that should matter to a business? Not “feelings” about what employees will do or intangibles like “team spirit”. Investors want maximum return on their money. They don’t really care how it is achieved. So, what do the cold, hard spreadsheets tell us?

A study from Stanford University reported remote workers were 5% more productive than in-office workers in the summer of 2020. By the spring of 2022, this productivity gap had increased to 9% as companies continued to improve their remote work practices and invested in technology that supported remote work.

A different study used employee monitoring software, and also found that remote workers are more productive than in-office workers. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study found that productivity growth in industries with a high reliance on remote work, such as IT and finance, grew from 1.1% between 2010 and 2019 to 3.3% since the start of the pandemic. In contrast, industries that rely on in-person contact, such as transportation, dining, and hospitality, experienced a change in productivity growth from an average increase of 0.6% between 2010 and 2019 to a decrease of 2.6% since the start of the pandemic.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky, Forbes, January 23, 2023

So, remote work doesn’t decrease worker productivity, it increases it.

Remote work also can decrease costs, dramatically. Mr. Musk will save a huge sum of money by shutting down offices and requiring workers to work remotely. Every other company that has large numbers of workers sitting in grey cubicles typing away can save money, lots of money, by shutting these offices down.

So, remote work increases productivity during a labor shortage and decreases costs. It seems like a no-brainer doesn’t it? Switching to remote work will increase profits. So, why isn’t the switch happening faster?

Three reasons: Ego; fear of being found out as unnecessary and tax subsidies.

Some CEOs really like seeing a bunch of worker bees buzzing away at their PCs. It makes them feel important. Some of these CEOs have spent investor money on huge Ego Palaces (see Apple Headquarters). If there’s no workers there, why was it built? Who would buy these White Elephants? Better get the workers back and tell them to look busy.

What do middle managers do, really? Well they “manage” people? What the heck does that mean? They are supposed to make sure the people who actually do stuff, do stuff. Here’s a little secret. There are some people who work because they like to work. There are other people who really don’t like to work. When work is in person, the latter group can show up on time, go to a lot of meetings, chat in the hallways with other idlers and take credit for all the work their team does while doing nothing themselves. To keep their jobs, all they have to do is butter up the middle manager. When the pandemic forced people into remote work, it was pretty easy to see who was whom. Pretty easy for a CEO just to fire the people who don’t complete their work units and keep the people who actually work. Voila. Instant improvement in productivity numbers. So, what then are the middle managers doing? What is their purpose? Maybe they don’t really do anything useful? Maybe their salaries are a waste of money? Maybe they could be fired with no loss to the company saving even more money? Better get the workers (who actually do stuff) back and tell them to “look” busy, especially the ones who don’t like to work.

Many cities lost of a lot of their residents starting in the 1960s. Mayors of these cities got worried about their tax base. They were largely unsuccessful in luring people back from the suburbs to live downtown, but they did get companies to build big office buildings in the downtowns. How did they do this? – tax subisidies and other financial incentives. So, we now have many Office-Cities which are busy during the day but empty at night. There are massive traffic jams as people commute back and forth from their nice suburban homes to their gray cubicles. Restaurants downtown are open for breakfast and lunch, but not dinner. What was the effect of the pandemic remote work move on the Office-City budget? Disaster! All those office workers were no longer spending money on restuarants and other services. Tax revenue declined. Also, consider that the people who do live downtown tend to be poor, unemployed and require lots of services. They stayed downtown during the pandemic. Can you imagine the mental state of Mayors when they see the financial projections of a mass move to remote work? Yikes. What’s the solution? They call up the CEOs and say “Better get the workers back to their cubicles and tell them to buy sandwiches at lunch – or else no financial subsidy for you!”

Companies that move to remote work will be more profitable than companies that require in person work. In the most competetive industries, like Tech, the smarter CEOs are moving to remote work. Their competitors will either follow their lead or go bankrupt. That’s how the free market works. The last companies to leave the Office-Cities will be monopolies for whom financial incentives from the Mayors are a determining factor in their profitability. However, the question arises, how long will the Mayors be able to continue to offer these financial incentives? Many office buildings will definitely close. This has already started. Slower-witted CEOs may start to wonder: “If so-and-so is selling their building, will I need to sell mine? If a bunch of us start selling our buildings at the same time, who will buy them? Yikes, I better sell mine while there are still suckers willling to buy it.” Thus, I am predicting that there will be a mass exodus of companies from the Office-Cities. Mayors of these cities will now be looking into the Abyss. “How do I pay police, fire and sanitation workers? How do I provide basic services for the poor people who still live in my city?”

You know what would make this even worse? Tell people the real odds of a nuclear war. Tell them that there is no plan, whatsoever, to evacuate the residents of big cities. Tell them that are no functioning fallout shelters. Tell them that even if they survive a nuclear bomb, they will be buried under rubble and that no one will be coming to save them. Tell the American public the truth about nuclear war and many will be heading for the exits. So, they are not told the truth, yet.

I feel sorry for the Mayors of the Office-Cities and the people who live in these soon-to-be-abandoned cities. It’s not their fault that technology changed and that the pandemic made it clear how to use it to increase profits. It is my personal belief that the federal government should come in and try to stabilize the Office-Cities. There are still valuable assets there: Museums, Libraries, Concert Halls, Zoos, Hospitals and magnificent historical buildings. Some work has to be done in person: police, fire, health care, etc. The Office-Cities should be de-densified in an intelligent way. Bulldoze the ugly rectangles and keep the nicest buildings. Create more greenspace. If the populations of the Office-Cities are reduced significantly, they may get taken off nuclear targeting lists. The more disbursed the population, the safer we will all be.

Gestalt # 127 – Prepare for Nuclear War V – Say When

I’m not too bad at predicting what is going to happen, in general terms. I suck at predicting when. I didn’t do too bad at predicting that we would experience a severe viral pandemic and that we would handle it badly. I even predicted that mRNA vaccines would be our best hope. However, I was off, by a lot of years, as to when we would experience a serious pandemic. I thought H5N1 influenza would cause a pandemic over a decade ago. Oops.

So, while I’m pretty sure we are going to experience a nuclear war, I’m not confident that I know when it is going to start. If one started today, I would not be surprised. If one didn’t start for 10 years I wouldn’t be surprised. Nonetheless, it is useful to consider how would we know that one is going to start soon, and even, that one has already started.

There are several US military entities involved in detecting the launch of a nuclear strike on the US. These include NORAD, located at Peterson Space Force Base near Colorado Springs, Colorado and STRATCOM, located at Offutt Air Force Base in Bellevue, Nebraska (near Omaha). These two organizations within the US military have access to information from a variety of assets including satellites, ground sensors of various types and specially equipped aircraft. It is expected that both NORAD and STRATCOM will be among the first targets destroyed in a nuclear war against the US. For this reason, the US military also has airborne command and control planes that can be used to launch our nuclear weapons from submarines and ground based ICBMs. We also have bombers which can launch nuclear weapons which also can likely be controlled by our airborne command centers.

I have no way of knowing what our satellites or ground stations are detecting. But, sometimes, I can tell what our planes our doing. There is a site called ADS-B Exchange which attempts to monitor all flights all over the world. If you go to that site, you will see a map crowded with little icons representing planes. If you click on one of those icons, you will get information on what type of plane it is, in the left hand panel, and where the plane has been, colored line trailing the plane. The line will vary in color depending on the altitude of the plane at particular time courses in its flight. Often, you will be able to determine where the plane originated from. If you click the “U” at the top of map, all the planes will disappear except military planes. This makes it much easier to focus on significant flights. However, you should be aware that this public map only tracks planes with their transponders on. Pilots can turn them off whenever they want. So, if you see a US military plane on the map, its because they want to be seen. The types of planes you see in “Top Gun” are almost never visible on this map.

There are a number of planes which are interesting to monitor with this site. These include E6-B (Boeing E-6 Mercury), the airborne command post for launching nuclear weapons (doomsday plane); the E3TF (Boeing E-3 Sentry), airborne early warning and control and P8 (Boeing P-8 Poseidon), anti-submarine warfare intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. The B52 (Boeing B-52 Stratofortress) and B-2 (Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit) both can carry nuclear weapons. I saw my first B52 on ADS-B exchange yesterday. I’ve never seen a B2 on that site.

When looking at what these planes do, it is important to know that if you see them, they want to be seen. Why? They aren’t signalling us, they are signalling the Russians and the Chinese. They are letting them know… something. What? My guess is that they are letting themselves be seen as a deterrent. They are saying “Look at what we have. We will know if you are getting ready to nuke us. Don’t try anything funny.” We do a lot more of this signalling that most countries do. Military aircraft from Russia and China rarely turn their transponders on. I assume that that is because our ability to detect enemy planes (and submarines) is better than theirs is.

I am no expert at analyzing patterns of flight of US military aircraft. The people who are, and report their results publicly, don’t provide context for what they see. Here is one interesting recent pattern. Some of the command planes are flying out of many more airports than usual. Why? One interpretation is that this is to avoid being hit in a sneak attack, first strike. Putin can never be sure where these high value targets will be at any given time. Since this change in pattern has happened recently, it may mean that our military planners have increased concern about the possibility of a first strike against the US. The US used to have planes with nuclear bombs on them in the air at all times. This was called “airborne alert” or more colorfully at one time in its history, “operation chrome dome”. This was cancelled by President Bush in 1991 at the end of Cold War I. One wonders if an airborne alert has been re-instated. KC-135 (Stratotanker), KC-10 (Extender) and KC-46 (Pegasus) planes are used for in-air refueling of combat aircraft. There has been an awful lot of activity with this type of plane, lately. I wonder what they are refueling? I did see that one B52 yesterday.

Flightrader24 is another flight monitoring map. In some ways, I like it better than ADS-B Exchange. Flightradar 24 is much better for monitoring civilian planes. If you go to their site, you will see a “hole” over Ukraine. Civilian planes don’t fly over Ukraine for obvious reasons. This “hole” appeared before Russia invaded and was thus an early indicator of what was about to happen. After the missile strike on Poland, there was briefly a “hole” over Poland, indicating that civilian planes were being re-directed around this country due to concern that they might get shot down. The hole over Poland is no longer apparent indicating a diminution of concern. If TPTB expect something is going to happen in a given area, civilian aircraft will likely be re-directed around that area. So, you can watch for “holes”. Don’t expect OSINT sources to do this for you. They saw, and ignored, the hole over Poland, for whatever reason.

“Miracle Mile” was a film made back in 1988. It remains one of the most accurate scenarios for what will happen in the first stages of a nuclear war. It’s depiction of those in the know running for the hills, without telling the general public, is spot on. I know this for certain. So, if a lot of highly informed people are suddenly “missing”, that could be a good warning.

Believe it or not, even after a full scale nuclear war starts, there will be many people who will have no idea that mushroom clouds have started to appear all over the world. If you are having a picnic in a rural setting, there may be nothing obvious to let you know that nukes have gone off. If you have a radio, that will probably fail. Your cellphone will fail. And when you get back to your house, you’ll notice that there is no electricity. If all three of these things happen at the same time, consider going to your fallout shelter. If you have the ability to check radiation levels, this would be a good time to start doing that.

Gestalt # 126 – Prepare for Nuclear War IV – You’re On Your Own (YOYO)

“While I would say the immediate risk is not so large that people should be heading out to the countryside, we could have a major nuclear war happen tomorrow if we’re unlucky.”
Miami Herald, November 15, 2022

The quote above is from Seth Baum, executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.

Here’s the thing, no one is going to tell you it’s time to be heading out to the countryside. Not the US government. Not OSINT. Not even me (probably).

Although the US government has detailed plans to save itself, it has absolutely no plans to save the average American citizen from the consequences of nuclear war. If you are in a target city or area, you have already been written off. You will get no warning. I’m convinced that OSINT sources have been compromised. They will give you no warning either. If I’m absolutely certain that nuclear missiles are about to start flying I will say so. But I have little confidence that I will be in that position.

I will try to provide the most detailed information I can relative to risk of nuclear war, but you will have to make your own decisions about what to do with this information. People are in very different situations. If you are a young, fit person who can work remotely, I think you should head for the countryside right now. If your ability to feed your family depends on a job in a target city or you need advanced medical care which is only available in a target city then your risk/benefit analysis will be different. I do recommend that everyone who can have a place to go to if the risk of nuclear war becomes very high. It doesn’t have to be expensive. It can be an old camper or mobile home on a small patch of land or a hunting camp with an outhouse. In the current situation, this is some of the best insurance you can buy.

The latest information is that the missile that hit Poland and killed two people was a Ukrainian air defense missile that went astray. However, if Putin ever does deliberately attack a NATO country, we will be at War with Russia. The odds of such a war going nuclear is high. Although such a war may start out with tactical nukes in Europe, most experts think such a war will escalate to global thermonuclear war very quickly. Everyone will have to make their own assessments about their triggers for “heading out to the countryside”.

You’re on Your Own (YOYO).

Gestalt # 125 – Prepare for Nuclear War III – The “With Bag”

Preppers are familiar with the term “Go Bag”. These are bags packed with supplies for an emergency. Many preppers will have these ready to go if they need to “bug out”, i. e., evacuate to a different location. A nuclear war can occur at any time with no warning. For those of us not already living in bunkers, we may be away from our safe spaces when a nuclear explosion occurs. We may have only minutes to seek shelter before the fallout begins to arrive. Hence, I think it would prudent to have certain supplies with us, at all times. Some of the items I list below will overlap with supplies recommended for “go bags”. Some may be a bit different.

Assumptions: I am not assuming that my typical reader is a fit 20-year-old who can hike 20 miles a day with an 80 pound pack. I’m envisioning a 75-year-old woman with a limp who can carry a large purse. I’ve put the items in order of priority. I’ll provide the list first and the explain the rationale for the items at the end of this blog.

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Protection from radiation:
Radiation badge
Potassium Iodide pills
Wipes – small container

Tyvek suit – 1
N95 – 1
Gloves – 1 pair
Goggles – 1
Disposable Shoe covers – set
Clean clothes – 1 set (t-shirt, sweatpants or shorts)
Duct tape – 1 roll
Water filtration

Communication
Small Radios – 2 (1 hand crank and 1 battery-operated)
Solar recharger for phone – 1

Flashlight – 1

Healthcare
First aid kit – antibiotic, bandaids, Excedrin, tweezers
Prescription drugs
Vitamins – 1 bottle
Garbage bag – 1

Water bottle – 1

Food
Candy bar – 1
Power bars – 2
Jerky – 1 small package

Light a fire
Matches – 1 small box
Magnesium firstarter – 1
Dryer lint – bag full
Fat wood – 2 pieces
Candle – 1

Thick socks – Pair

Leatherman tool – 1

Sleeping bag – 1

Survival book – 1

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When choosing the items above, size counts. Make sure you get the smallest, high quality version you can as you will need to move fast in a nuclear emergency to get shelter. You won’t want to be weighed down with a lot of stuff.

Fallout will consist of particles in dust that falls from the sky. This dust will be lethal. You want to avoid getting the dust on you. If you can get to shelter before the fallout arrives, get inside as fast as you can. Concrete buildings with basements are the best option, but don’t spend too much time looking for one. If you know a nuclear explosion has occurred near by get in the closest shelter you can. A car does not count.

A radiation badge can be kept with you at all times and will let you know how much radiation you have been exposed to. Wipes can be used to wipe any dust off yourself or anything important. If you must be outside for any length of time before you can find shelter, put on the Tyvek suit, gloves and goggles. They will NOT protect you from radiation, but can easily be removed when you do find shelter so that you don’t risk bringing radiation contamination into the shelter. Leave them outside. The N95 will help you to avoid breathing in radioactive dust. It will NOT guarantee your safety from radiation sickness. Wipe yourself down and put on clean clothes right away, when you find shelter. Potassium iodide pills will help protect you against thyroid cancer but not radiation sickness. Take the approved amount as soon as you are in a shelter.

Duct tape can be used to seal windows and doors to help keep out radioactive dust. Water may be contaminated with radiation. Some portable water filters may help. I am still researching this.

Radios may or may not work after “an event”.

There will likely be no electricity, so a flashlight will be useful in a basement or windowless room.

Healthcare – mostly self explanatory. The garbage bag is for human waste. You may not have access to a bathroom.

Dryer lint and fat wood makes it easier to start a fire, if you need to.

Pick a Leatherman tool that makes the most sense to you. Make sure it includes scissors (for cutting duct tape) and can and bottle openers.

A sleeping bag should be in your car at all times. If you can carry it in to wherever you are sheltering, great. But don’t go back for it if you can’t get it in right away. Time is radiation.

I am open for suggestions for revision of this list. Note, it is easy to keep adding more stuff that would be nice to have, but keep in mind who this is for: a 75-year-old woman with a limp. It’s got to fit into her big purse.

Gestalt # 124 – Prepare for Nuclear War III – Duty to Warn

Preppers know that they should prepare to purify water and stockpile food for many reasons. But does the US government?

We are told that President Biden is getting daily briefings about the possibility of nuclear war. The threat could come from Russia, China, North Korea and maybe even Iran. What is he doing to prepare the American people for this possibility? As far as I can tell, nothing.

I don’t mean to blame only President Biden. There is a long list of Presidents who have been briefed on nuclear war, told how they will be kept safe should the worst happen and who have completely ignored their duty to warn the American people about what may happen and how to mitigate the consequences of a nuclear attack. This lack of warning has occurred for the same reason that the American government, including the CDC and NIH, fail to warn the American public about the consequences of Long Covid – Business Interests.

Can you imagine what would happen to the economies of Target Cities if the inhabitants really knew how much danger they were in just by living there? Some people would stay no matter what and roll the dice, but many would leave for safer environs, if they had a true appreciation of the risk. Our economy is already in a desperate condition due to the pandemic. I suspect business leaders and government planners will move heaven and earth to make sure no one knows how risky it is to live in many cities.

At the very least, the US government could make some modest preparations to save some portion of the US public who survive the initial consequences of a nuclear attack. Clear and salient messages on seeking shelter to avoid radioactive fallout would be helpful. I think nuclear winter has probably been exaggerated, but it it is very possible that food production and distribution will be disrupted for at least a year. The government should stockpile 1 year of food for all Americans. I estimate that this could be done for about 300 billion dollars. That’s a lot, but considerably less than the trillions used for the pandemic bailout. Food that was in danger of expiring could be donated to other countries experiencing famine. There will be no shortage of candidates for such aid in the very near future.

I also feel a duty to warn. This is why I write this blog. So, my recommendation is to have a safe place to go if there is a nuclear war. Stockpile enough food for 1 year and have method(s) for purifying water. I don’t think you will regret taking these precautions.