Gestalt #197

H5N1 virus has been found at very high levels in milk. Is it safe? We don’t know.

There is no data on whether or not pasteurization inactivates the virus. There is no indication that there will be any such studies.

Three and a half weeks after first announcing the startling news that cows from a milking herd in Texas had tested positive for H5N1, the government agencies involved in the investigations have not yet revealed what research shows about whether pasteurization of milk kills this specific virus.

Helen Branswell, STAT News, April 18, 2024

H5N1 is spreading cow to cow and cow to poultry. Pigs are at risk.

Virus has been found in nasal swabs from cows, so it could be spreading to the respiratory systems of cows. Pigs, which are mixing vessel that are known to produce human adapted strains of flu virus, are not being tested for H5N1.

Pigs are a linchpin in flu surveillance, many experts noted, as they are susceptible to both bird and human flu. They might act as “mixing bowls,” enabling H5N1 to acquire the ability to spread efficiently among people.

The U.S.D.A. is not testing pigs or asking farmers to do so, Dr. Sifford said.

Apoorva Mandavilli, Emily Anthes NY Times, April 19, 2024

We may be closer to nuclear war than is realized

Iran has everything it needs to make nuclear weapons within a few months.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/iaea-chief-says-iran-could-produce-nuclear-weapon-within-months-209316933854
NBC News, April 19, 2024

Gestalt #196

Nuclear War – A review

I read the book “Nuclear War” by Annie Jacobsen in one day. This fictional scenario was better written than most thrillers. Plot spoilers ahead. The book does not have a happy ending. The great strength of the book is its meticulous description of the procedures that would govern our response should the United States come under nuclear attack. These are quite frightening as they appear to be antiquated and not suitable for the 21st Century. The author suggests, and I agree, that even if a nuclear war begins “small”, it will likely expand to large scale launch of many nuclear weapons. There are just too many potential failure points and too little time to make decisions to stop at a limited war. Where I disagree with the author is her assumption of a nuclear winter that lasts five years. Maybe this will happen, but I don’t think this is the consensus. The truth is, we really don’t know what will happen. Certainly, some level of cooling will occur for at least a few months, which, in itself, will be devastating to countries that must import food to survive. However, the dire prediction that she makes is not well-supported by the available evidence. There are lots of activists pushing the same scenario. I get that she wants people to be scared enough to try avoid nuclear war. But frankly, there isn’t much her readers can do about stopping it from happening. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un are the men who will decide whether or not to start a nuclear war, not us. They are not smart or especially rational men. They are all megalomaniacs who live in echo chambers surrounded by eunuchs who tell them exactly what they want to hear. We can’t control what they do. However, we can decide to survive what they do. The truth is that deaths due to famine from nuclear winter will be unequal. Countries dependent on external inputs will do the worst. Countries that are well-prepared and self-sufficient in food production will do the best.

Where is Cesar Chavez when you need him?

For those who don’t know, Cesar Chavez was a labor activist who advocated on behalf of Mexican farm workers. He sought better working conditions for people who had been exploited by agribusinesses. Right now, farm workers in the dairy industry are being exposed to H5N1 without adequate protection. Farm equipment is thought to be aerosolizing contaminated milk. This is thought to be how the one documented human case occurred. How many undocumented cases have there been? We don’t know because no one is bothering to check on the farm workers many of whom are themselves, undocumented. Do the “liberals” in the media care? Don’t make me laugh. They could not care less. Evidence: how many stories do you see of uber wealthy elites like Anderson Cooper going down to the farms and exposing the lousy working conditions for workers. Do the “liberals” in Congress or the White House care? Please, stop. I need to breathe. Evidence: the White House controlled-CDC has done absolutely nothing to help get PPE or H5N1 tests to the farm workers. “Liberals” don’t really care about the poor or working class.

Where is Ronald Reagan when you need him?

President Reagan, regardless of what you think of his policies on other issues, was a strong foe of the Soviet Union and the threat it represented to the free world. He must be turning in his grave to see Members of Congress who call themselves “conservatives” kissing up to Vladimir Putin, a man who seeks to re-establish the Soviet Union that Reagan helped dismantle. Win one for the Gipper? Not these clowns. They’re Red alright. Commie Red. Make careful note of who votes against helping Ukraine prevent the rebirth of the Soviet Union and you will know who the Communist Sympathizers are. Or worse. People who have betrayed the US – for what?

H5N1 in Cows – What we know, what we should find out and how to do it

Cow-to-cow H5N1 transmission has been documented

Cows from Texas and/or another State with H5N1 infection have transmitted the virus to cows in three different States: Idaho, Michigan and Ohio. This is strong evidence that the virus is transmitting cow-to-cow. What we don’t know is how the virus is transmitting. Is it respiratory? Fecal-oral? A cow with an active infection of H5N1 should be sacrificed and a necropsy performed. Areas of special interest: upper respiratory system, lower respiratory system, the eye, gastrointestinal system and the nervous system. Viruses from the original cows as well as the cows that were infected by other cows should be sequenced and the sequences deposited in GenBank. Further, a systematic surveillance program of all cows in the US should occur. A statistically sound sampling of cows for H5N1, whether or not they have symptoms, should be immediately initiated and the results published to publicly available websites as they are obtained.

A farm worker who was in close contact with infected cows was infected with H5N1 which had a mutation not present in the virus that infected the cows.

This mutation, E627K in the PB2 gene, has been associated with increased replication, pathogenesis and mammalian adaptation. The assumption is that this mutation occurred in the patient. However, no information has been provided about the sequence present in the cats that died. Although it is certainly reasonable to suggest that the farm worker was infected by the cows, perhaps through aerosolized milk products, the possibility that they were infected from cats should be investigated.

Cats in close contact with infected cows are dying

3 cats in Texas in close contact with infected cows have been documented to die with H5N1 infections. Necropsies should be performed to determine how they were infected. The same tissues as are listed for cows should receive special attention. Sequences of the cat H5N1 should be deposited in GenBank

How widespread are the cat infections associated with cows?

I am aware of three cats that were infected and killed by H5N1 in a dairy in Texas. However, there was a report from the political blog “Daily Kos” that 40 cats died on a dairy farm in New Mexico. I can find no confirmation of this report from any news source including the CIDRAP story that is cited. If anyone has any other references, I would appreciate seeing the links here. In any case, systematic testing of barn cats, whether or not they have symptoms, is well-justified.

References

Technical Update: Summary Analysis of Genetic Sequences of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses in Texas
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/h5n1-analysis-texas.htm
CDC. April 2, 2024

From bad to worse. How the avian flu must change before it can trigger a human pandemic
https://www.science.org/content/article/bad-worse-avian-flu-must-change-trigger-human-pandemic
Nature. Kai Kupferschmidt. 6 Apr 2023

Tests confirm avian flu on New Mexico dairy farm; probe finds cats positive.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/tests-confirm-avian-flu-new-mexico-dairy-farm-probe-finds-cats-positive
Lisa Schnirring April 2, 2024
[note, the headline might have confused some people. This story includes several reports including confirmation of H5N1 in New Mexico and separately, cats positive for H5N1 in a dairy farm in Texas]

Gestalt # 195 – H5N1 in Cows and Milk

H5N1 (Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b) has been confirmed in cows in Texas, Kansas and Michigan. Presumptive positive tests have been reported for New Mexico and Idaho. H5N1 has been found in the milk of infected dairy cows. The virus is spreading cow to cow, apparently with fairly good efficiency.

Bird flu has been detected in a dairy herd from Montcalm County.

The cases are believed to be linked to bird flu (HPAI) cases found in cattle in Texas. The farm recently received cattle from an affected area in Texas before that herd was known to have bird flu. When the cattle were moved from Texas to Michigan they did not appear ill.

Click On Detroit, Kayla Clark, March 30, 2024

This is evidence of asymptomatic cows spreading the virus to other cows.

According to the USDA:

Among the dairies whose herds are exhibiting symptoms, the affected animals have recovered after isolation with little to no associated mortality reported.

This is surprising as H5N1 has been reported to cause severe symptoms, including brain damage, in most animals, including humans, that it infects. In humans, the case fatality rate for H5N1 infection is 53%. Why would a virus that is lethal to such disparate animals as chickens, ducks, opossums, seals, foxes, skunks, otters, mountain lions, tigers, raccoons, bears, goats and humans be relatively harmless in cows? The lack of curiosity on the part of federal officials about this puzzling finding is itself odd. If we assume that dairy cows initially got infected as a result of exposure to wild birds, surely cattle raised for beef have had the same exposure and are likely infected as well (as suggested by moderator JH at ProMED).

When poultry have been found infected with H5N1, the standard operating procedure is to destroy the whole flock, burn and bury the carcasses and not allow any of the infected birds to enter the human food chain. This is not the policy for cows, however. We are told that milk from obviously sick cows will be diverted away from products for humans. Since this virus has such apparently mild symptoms in cows, surely some infected milk will be processed for human consumption. We are told that pasteurization will kill any virus in milk.

Farmers who are impatient about waiting for their cows to “recover”, are being allowed to slaughter them for beef.

Idaho’s Leibsle said “not all dairy producers will want to wait one, two, three weeks” for dairy cows to recover. Some producers may decide to send the animals to slaughter as beef animals, he said. All those cattle will undergo the same rigorous food safety protocols.

Lena H. Sun, Washington Post, March 29, 2024

Excuse me, but rigorous food safety protocols would prevent infected meat from getting into the human food chain. This infected meat will likely be eaten by humans in the form of hamburgers and sausage. It is worth mentioning that the carnivores in the list of animals killed by H5N1 are presumed to have been infected by eating animals with the virus. We are told that properly cooked meat should kill the virus. This is probably true. However…

Raw milk and milk products are consumed by millions of Americans. This unpasteurized milk could presumably be a source of infection. In addition, no process is 100% effective. It is entirely possible that pasteurization will fail in some places, at some times. Long ago, I worked at a fast food restaurant and know what goes on in the back kitchen. Suffice it to say, sanitary conditions were not a priority. Perhaps it will not be surprising to discover that teenagers working for minimum wage may not properly cook all the hamburgers. Will they themselves be at risk when they handle infected raw meat? What about slaughterhouse workers and meat packers? Of course, farm workers will be at prime risk for exposure and infection. The CDC recently came out with a CYA announcement about wearing N95s when working with infected cows, but come on, how many farmers are going to go deep into a CDC website looking for something like this? Let’s be honest, the vast majority of farm workers will have no idea the risk they run by working with dairy cows and cattle.

Why is the policy of preventing infected animal products from entering the human food supply so different for poultry and cows? Is it based on science? None that I can think of. This leaves money and politics. The dairy and cattle industries are large (100 billion dollars, each) and have tremendous lobbying power in Washington. Consider what would happen if dairy and cattle operations were required to depopulate their herds if one animal was found to be infected as is policy for poultry. There would be a huge financial loss. If this problem is widespread, and it is likely that it is, this could lead to a shortage of dairy products and beef. This would be followed by massive food inflation. Restaurants, especially in the fast food industry, would go bankrupt. It is an election year. I believe, but have no proof, that the Biden administration is leaning hard on federal officials to avoid saying or requiring anything that would lead to food shortages, bankruptcies or inflation – the health of the American people be damned. Governors in Ag states are probably also terrified of what will happen if the basis for their economies were to be destroyed. I’m sure the hope is that this “blows over” and by avoiding publicity an economic disaster will be averted. They are crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. I hope that they are right. However, if they are wrong and Americans start dying of H5N1 because obvious public health measures were not taken, God help us all.

References:

USDA, FDA and CDC Share Update on HPAI Detections in Dairy Cattle
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-fda-cdc-share-update-hpai-detections-dairy-cattle
USDA, March 29, 2024

Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mammals
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals
USDA, March 21, 2024

USDA Avian Influenza Response: Mass Depopulation and Carcass Disposal
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/media/document/1286/file
USDA, May 2015

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Animals: Interim Recommendations for Prevention, Monitoring, and Public Health Investigations
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hpai/hpai-interim-recommendations.html
CDC, March 29, 2024