Author: monotreme1000

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Gestalt #198

We don’t know whether or not an H5N1 Pandemic has already begun

I often see stories with quotes from people who claim to be experts saying that currently the risk of an H5N1 pandemic is low, but that this could change at any moment. Really. I’m sorry, but this is a stupid statement. I don’t care where you got your degree or what your title is. This statement fails on both logic and fact. First, how can we possibly know the risk of an H5N1 pandemic when we have grossly insufficient knowledge of some of the key values that determine risk? Like: how many cows are infected with H5N1? How is H5N1 being transmitted cow to cow? How many people have been infected by cows with H5N1? Is H5N1 being transmitted asymptomatically person to person? Asserting that you know that the risk of an H5N1 pandemic is low, or even that the risk to any given person of H5N1 infection is low, cannot be justified given that we know almost nothing about H5N1 spread in cows or people. What about what we do know? Is that reassuring? No, it is not. About 20% of retail milk has been contaminated with H5N1. That means that there are a huge number of cows that have been infected with H5N1, the vast majority of which have not been identified. Some experts say they are not concerned about cows but are concerned about pigs because pigs could be mixing vessels as they have receptors for both bird and human flus. First, no one knows whether or not pigs also have been infected with H5N1 because no one is testing them. Second, it turns out cows also have receptors for both bird and human flu in their mammary glands which are producing infected milk! The CDC tells us that flu levels are not up based on their surveillance system for respiratory symptoms. However, H5N1 is killing animals by damaging their brains. Neurological signs may be the most important and no one is looking for them. Some cows infected with H5N1 are asymptomatic. Isn’t it obvious that some humans are likely to be as well? Millions of Americans drink unpasteurized milk. Cats drank unpasteurized milk, developed neurological illness and then died. Does this sound like a low risk situation to you?

Why do “experts” say such obvious nonsense? Here’s why. They say “the current level of risk is low” to satisfy economic interests and avoid trouble from TPTB. They say “but the risk could change tomorrow” to cover their rear ends in case people suddenly start dropping like flies. What would be an accurate statement? How about: “We don’t know what the risk of an H5N1 pandemic is right now or even if one has already started due to insufficient data. However, what we do know is alarming.” They might follow this up with “The Federal government and State Governments should treat the current situation as an emergency and use all of their powers to obtain more and better data on what H5N1 is doing in cows and people.” Such statements will not please politicians or powerful business interests, but they would have the virtue of being the truth.

Demographics and Economic Catastrophe

It is an established fact that birthrates are dropping dramatically in most countries, including the US. This means that the human population is shifting towards older people. Almost every single aspect of our economy is based on a growing population of young people since they are the primary sources of productivity and income. Below replacement birth rates spell economic doom, pretty much for the whole world. Consider one example, the insurance industry. Insurance companies collect money from policy holders, pay out an agreed upon amount for claims and retain the difference between collection and payout as their profit. Obviously, they need to take more in than they pay out for this to work. For both life and medical insurance, the ideal situation is to have a lot of young policy holders who won’t make many claims and relatively few older policy holders from whom there will be many claims. During the Baby Boom, this was the situation. However, we are now headed for the opposite situation where we will have many older people and relatively few younger people. So, insurance companies will be collecting less and paying out more. How can they make a profit this way? How can they even honor their existing commitments to older people? I don’t think they can. This applies not only to private insurance but also public insurance such as Medicare, which will run out of its Trust Fund in 2035. The soothers will tell you, no problem, we will just tax people more to cover the deficit. Really. Tax who? Remember, there will be much smaller numbers of young people alive to pay those taxes. Will they vote for politicians to tax them more to pay for medical care for large numbers of older people? I doubt it. Everything in our economy depends on ever increasing numbers of young people: schools, colleges, clothing stores, real estate, taxes for essential services… Everything. It is too late to avoid this problem. Indeed we would already be seeing its effects if the government weren’t printing increasingly large amounts of money and creating massive numbers of stealth make-work jobs. This doesn’t solve the problem since this money printing is leading directly to inflation. If the government doesn’t stop this soon, we may experience hyperinflation and the collapse of paper money as a useful medium of economic exchange.

Depopulation

I worry about pandemics, nuclear war and other potential external depopulating events. However, I worry the most about the collapse of human fertility. This disaster has already occurred and cannot be reversed any time soon. Even without any external catastrophes, the Earth will soon be depopulated of humans. It is incredible that there is no discussion of this in the media or by politicians.

A relatively small number of young people are deciding to have children. The future of this planet belongs to them.

Happy Mothers Day.

What we can do to prevent harm from an H5N1 pandemic

We are being told that we don’t have to worry about an H5N1 pandemic now, but maybe in the future. This is portrayed as something that is out of anyone’s hands, just something that may occur like a hurricane or a tornado. This is yet another lie. Consider.

The current evidence suggests that there was single spillover event from birds to cows in one farm in Texas. What would have happened if the USDA, OSHA and the CDC had cooperated early in the cow H5N1 epidemic to stop movement of cows out of Texas? What if every cow in the Texas panhandle and adjacent areas had been tested and affected animals culled? What if every farm worker had been tested, isolated and treated with antivirals? Would the dairy industry be facing an existential crisis? No. It would be fine. Would we be worried about H5N1 in cows causing a human pandemic? We would not. But because federal and State agencies did NOT do their jobs, we are looking at a huge economic cost (for sure) and a possible huge cost in human lives. We should not obscure this fact with false analogies.

We are told that we are ready for a pandemic because we have known about H5N1 for a long time. We have antivirals. We have vaccines. Go back to sleep. However, if you want to live, it might be better to wake up. How many people can we treat with antivirals? What is our supply? Did you know that antiviral resistance often occurs with flu viruses? H5N1 may start out being susceptible to antivirals but may quickly develop resistance especially if antivirals are widely used. How many vaccines do we have? A handful. How long before we have enough for every American? Six months would be wildly optimistic. What will do in the meantime? Shelter-in-place? Wear N95s? Please. Public health authorities have lost most of their credibility in the last pandemic by lying so frequently. Thanks Dr. Fauci. And now they are lying again. Most people won’t take an H5N1 pandemic seriously, because they have been told not to, until they know someone who died. Then, they really will “panic”, because they will be afraid and not know who to trust. Will essential workers show up? Will truckers risk their lives to bring food to the cities? Maybe not.

We can’t stop viruses from changing and becoming more dangerous any more than we can stop hurricanes or tornadoes from forming. But what we can do is give accurate warnings and plan realistic mitigation measures. We do that pretty well with hurricanes and tornadoes. Killer viruses, not so much.

A whole-of-government approach to pandemic prevention means that we do not accept barriers to testing of animals or people. If we have to, we play hardball. Don’t want to let the CDC in to your dairy operation? Fine. Say hello to the worst SOB OSHA inspector you’ve ever met. Also, here comes an ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raid. Cooperate and you get a nice government check to compensate you for your loss of animals. Don’t cooperate and maybe your big Ag operation goes belly up. Shut the spread of H5N1 among cows down now. Explain to the dairy industry that this is big deal and that it is in their interest to cooperate and take some pain now versus tanking their entire industry for decades (Cow flu killed my family! How long will it take to erase that memory?). The longer this goes on, the worse the pain will be.

What do our stockpiles of N95s and antivirals look like? Do we have enough for everyone who works in a hospital and other essential workers? If not, get this going now. Don’t wait. Just how are we going to make vaccine for H5N1? With chicken eggs, cell culture or mRNA? Only the latter has any chance of producing enough quickly enough to make a difference. It’s also the only way to keep up with changes in the virus. We should know this by now. And please. Stop lying to people. Let them know H5N1 is a serious virus, likely far worse than SARS-CoV-2. Start thinking about a good public relations campaign to get people to cooperate. For God’s sake, don’t hire the same people who did such a lousy job in the last pandemic.

Lies vs Facts about H5N1 in cows

  1. This virus is no different from other H5N1 strains.

Fact: This virus is reassortment of genes of different flu strains that presumably happened in birds before it went to cows.

  1. This virus doesn’t spread cow to cow.

Fact: This virus spreads efficiently cow to cow.

  1. This virus is mild, nothing to worry about.

Fact: Cows almost never get infected by influenza viruses. The fact that this version of H5N1 can infect cows easily, cause pathology and replicate to high levels in this host suggests that this strain of H5N1 is much more virulent. Although the cows are not reported to die, we don’t know whether or not the sicker cows are being turned into hamburger rather than being carefully assessed. When this virus is transmitted to cats and raccoons, it is highly lethal. The symptoms of the one human who was infected are more serious than has usually been reported, and this person received an antiviral.

  1. This virus shows no signs of being adapted to mammals.

Fact: The strain that infected the farm worker had a mutation (PB2 E627K) which is associated with adaptation to mammals.

  1. All potentially infected milk was diverted away from the human food supply.

Fact: 20% of all grocery store milk had evidence of H5N1 virus, although reportedly not live virus.

  1. The CDC response to this potential pandemic is run by intelligent, determined individuals who are working tirelessly to protect US health.

Fact: The CDC response to H5N1 is run be weak, dumb, passive people who shouldn’t be trusted with paper cut prevention.

Demetre Daskalakis is the Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC. In some interviews, he apparently can’t keep the numbers of people being monitored for H5N1 infection straight. Google his name and then hit “images” in the top menu and ask yourself: is this narcissistic oddball someone you would trust your life with? Because you are.

Vivien Dugan is the director of the influenza division of the CDC. You can read an interview with her here. Although she says that the possibility of an H5N1 influenza pandemic “keeps her up at night”, what is the evidence for this? Read the interview and you will see a bunch of mealy-mouthed, blame-shifting, CYA statements. What you will not see is an ounce of personal courage or willingness to risk her next raise by calling out the individuals responsible blocking data release, which may include some of her colleagues at the CDC.

And the Director of the CDC, Mandy Cohen? Where is she? Why isn’t she calling press conferences and warning people not to drink unpasteurized milk, in the strongest possible terms? Why isn’t she using her influence to insist on PPE for farm workers? If you look up “light-weight” in the dictionary, you will see a picture of Dr. Cohen, complete with witless grin.

The reason the CDC has third-raters in important leadership positions is because smart, determined people don’t want these jobs and/or couldn’t get them if they did. Politicians want compliant, brown nosers who won’t rock the boat and cause economic issues that might threaten the politicians’ elections. That is their right. However, the people who take these jobs should not be given the respect due real scientists. They are political lackeys and should be identified as such.

Preparing for the next Pandemic

Prepare for the withholding of information and outright lies

It is hard to prepare for something that you know nothing about. How many Americans know that there is a highly lethal version of monkeypox (mpox) spreading human to human in Africa? Almost no one. We are a few travelers a way from a disaster with this virus. Closer to home, how many people know how lethal H5N1 is to people? Almost no one. This is not because they have not heard of H5N1, it’s because they are being deliberately lied to by officials and, especially, the media. First, a quick recap of the facts. H5N1 originated in China where officials there lied about its origins (sound familiar?). It then spread around the world (presumably by wild birds). It has adapted to spread to mammals efficiently and further, to spread mammal to mammal. Most importantly, the case fatality rate is about 60%.

Lies about this virus come in several forms. Media reports have, deliberately, in my opinion, attempted to hide the threat posed by H5N1 by calling it other things like HPAI. An Ag industry group, The American Association of Bovine Practioners (AABP) wants to rename H5N1 to “Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).” There is absolutely no scientific basis for this. This is strictly an attempt to confuse the public so that they don’t know that a virus that has killed 60% of the reported patients is spreading within dairy cows. Media stories continue lie about H5N1, as recently as yesterday. The Texarkana Gazette ran a story entitled “Bird flu strain poses no real threat to humans, officials say“. If you read the story, you will see that no official says this at all. However, they do link to a CDC informational flyer that lists symptoms of H5N1 infection but fails to mention the incredibly high mortality rate. So, we have government officials withholding information and reporters using these lacunae to assert absence of harm. What’s the real situation? The best reporting lately has come from Canada, perhaps because they have yet to report cases in cattle:

Michael Worobey, a researcher from B.C. who’s now head of the department of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona, said these cattle infections may have been “flying under our radar for months,” providing ongoing opportunities for this virus to acquire adaptations that could lead to a flu pandemic.

“I think, in many ways, this is the biggest news story in the world right now.”

Why dangerous bird flu is spreading faster and farther than first thought in U.S. cattle. Lauren Pelley, Amina Zafar, CBC, Apr 27, 2024

Prepare for limited and very expensive meat

If large numbers of people start getting infected with H5N1 as a result of working with cows or consuming unpasteurized milk, as seems likely, you will see pressure to eliminate H5N1 in cows. This will almost certainly require a decrease in their numbers for a period of time. So, dairy products and possibly beef prices will rise. People will shift their meat consumption to chicken and pork raising these prices as well. Chicken costs are already rising because they are also succumbing to H5N1. This leaves pork. Pigs are not currently being tested for H5N1. What will we find when they are? Don’t forget, although government officials want to control the narrative, it is easy for independent researchers to test pork products and pigs themselves for H5N1. All you need is a thermal cycler, the right primers and some PCR supplies.

Food insecurity is rising, especially in the elderly. Older baby boomers had pensions that they receive as well as social security. Most of the current wave of retirees did not receive pensions. They also saved little, if anything for retirement. Hence, many will be totally reliant on Social Security. Benefits have not be rising fast enough to account for inflation, especially in food. In addition to preparing for ourselves, we should prepare to help those in need deed by donating to food banks and checking on elderly relatives, friends and neighbors to make sure that they are getting enough to eat. This is yet another reason to have your own farm. You can feed yourself and help feed others as well.

Prepare for limited supplies of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

Currently, there are no shortages of N95s or other PPE that I am aware of. If H5N1 starts spreading efficiently in humans, expect that to change. Hospitals will be the first to want to increase use of N95s and other PPE. The general public, goaded by small-brained politicians and media “personalities”, will largely reject masks – until someone they know dies, which will likely happen a lot sooner than with SARS-CoV-2. Then N95s will get very expensive and finally become unavailable to most. You know the drill. Preppers don’t “hoard” PPE or buy it on the black market when it is in short supply. They don’t need to. They bought their supplies when they were plentiful.

Prepare for diversion of H5N1 vaccines to the elite

There are only enough H5N1 vaccines on hand for a minority of Americans. Don’t expect them to be distributed based on any kind of fair system. I still remember the swine flu epidemic and the diversion of vaccine that occurred then. Although it did not kill at a much higher rate then ordinary flu, it did preferentially kill children rather than older people. Yet, scarce vaccine was secretly diverted away from children and quietly given to members of the elite such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley executives. I remember reading a story about this at the same time that I read about a Texas girl who died because she could not get vaccine. I still remember the picture of her smiling in her colorful pajamas taken before she became ill. If Wall Street executives had consciences, they and other elites who jumped the line and got vaccine instead of this girl would be as haunted by her memory as I am. But since they don’t…

I will publicize this story over and over again.

Wall Street bankers at front of queue for scarce swine flu vaccine
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/nov/06/wall-street-bankers-swine-flue

Amid shortage, big NYC firms get swine vaccine
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna33655838

Gestalt #197

H5N1 virus has been found at very high levels in milk. Is it safe? We don’t know.

There is no data on whether or not pasteurization inactivates the virus. There is no indication that there will be any such studies.

Three and a half weeks after first announcing the startling news that cows from a milking herd in Texas had tested positive for H5N1, the government agencies involved in the investigations have not yet revealed what research shows about whether pasteurization of milk kills this specific virus.

Helen Branswell, STAT News, April 18, 2024

H5N1 is spreading cow to cow and cow to poultry. Pigs are at risk.

Virus has been found in nasal swabs from cows, so it could be spreading to the respiratory systems of cows. Pigs, which are mixing vessel that are known to produce human adapted strains of flu virus, are not being tested for H5N1.

Pigs are a linchpin in flu surveillance, many experts noted, as they are susceptible to both bird and human flu. They might act as “mixing bowls,” enabling H5N1 to acquire the ability to spread efficiently among people.

The U.S.D.A. is not testing pigs or asking farmers to do so, Dr. Sifford said.

Apoorva Mandavilli, Emily Anthes NY Times, April 19, 2024

We may be closer to nuclear war than is realized

Iran has everything it needs to make nuclear weapons within a few months.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/iaea-chief-says-iran-could-produce-nuclear-weapon-within-months-209316933854
NBC News, April 19, 2024