Gestalt # 171 – Global Meltdown

I am going to offend a lot of people with this blog. Sorry, but it is time to tell the plain truth, as I see it, no matter how unpleasant it is to hear.

The Middle East

Like most people, I have been shocked and horrified by recent events in Israel. It is too early to know what led to the catastrophic failure to anticipate and respond to the attack by Hamas. I suspect that multiple causes will be found. I would suggest that one variable was the pandemic. Israel had been one of the leaders in responding to the pandemic. But the Israeli government, like all the others, eventually threw in the towel and let the virus rampage in the country unchecked. It is hard to understand how so many poor decisions could have been made to allow the current situation to occur. Could it be that some of the people who had been quite good at anticipating problems and planning for them no longer have brains that work as well as they used to? Israel is a small country surrounded by enemies and can only survive if it is vastly superior in technology and planning to its neighbors. This was true but may no longer be. The (Shia) Iranian government continues to stir up trouble and develop its nuclear weapons. The (Sunni) Saudis respond by talking about developing nuclear weapons of their own. Israel already has nuclear weapons. How does this end?

Africa

Africa has some of the best reserves of natural resources in the world. Yet, most countries within the continent are poor. This is partly due to the after effects of colonialism and stupidly designed national borders for which the English government is mostly responsible. However, incredible levels of corruption within African governments, religious wars and ancient tribal hatreds are also responsible for collapsing African economies. Repeated epidemics of extremely dangerous viruses such as Ebola have nearly destroyed some African countries and may yet do so. All of this is leading to mass migrations to Europe which are not sustainable. How does this end?

Europe

To continue this theme into Europe, how long before the Italians and Spanish decide their survival as nations requires draconian and very definitely unhumanitarian measures to stop from being overwhelmed by boatloads of angry young men? Eastern Europe is already starting to address the issue of huge numbers of angry young men seeking to escape from the Middle Eastern caldron. This isn’t going to be nice to watch.

Why haven’t the Russian people risen up and torn Mad Vlad limb from limb? Why do they climb into buses to be sent with lousy weapons and equipment to Ukraine where they are likely to be killed or maimed? Could it be that their brains were fried by SARS-CoV-2? Russia had one of the lowest levels vaccination in Europe and compliance with masking recommendations was poor. Mad Vlad threatens nuclear war every other day unless he is allowed to conquer as much of Europe as he wants (although he has fans in Germany and the US, sadly). Besides his, thus far, empty threats, Putin is moving forward with a number of nuclear-related technologies. They may not work perfectly, but even one poorly functioning nuclear warhead can ruin your whole day as long as it goes boom. How does this end?

The Indian Subcontinent

There was recently a Nipah virus epidemic in India. We don’t know the source. However, the virus in this latest oubreak clearly was transmitted human to human fairly efficiently. Nipah can be as deadly as Ebola. The current outbreak has apparently ended. But wherever the virus came from, it may return. We Americans tend to forget that India and Pakistan are bitter, nuclear-armed enemies. India’s current leader is an intolerant Hindu religious zealot who is leading India towards theocracy. Muslim Pakistan borders on a failed State (Afghanistan) and is close to becoming a failed State itself. It is not easy to tell where Pakistani intelligence operatives end and terrorists begin. Any number of terrorist groups within Pakistan or adjacent Afghanistan would like to get their hands on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Given that Pakistani officials do not have good control over their nuclear weapons, it is possible that terrorists will get them. How does this end?

Asia

SARS-CoV-2 originated in China (as did SARS-CoV-1 and H5N1). The consensus is slowly moving away from a natural origin to this virus to a laboratory origin. There is zero doubt in my mind that Chinese scientists are aggressively developing biological weapons with, I’m afraid, some funding and assistance from the American government. Scientists in China working with these viruses are notoriously sloppy. Many in the US know this but can’t say it out loud without being branded racist. However, the truth is the truth and the result of this truth is over one million dead Americans. Xi Jinping is a sociopath and a megalomaniac. His incompetence has resulted in the destruction of the Chinese economic miracle pioneered by Deng Xiaopeng. Xi won’t take the blame of course. He’d rather extend WW III to Asia and kill more millions of people than risk the displeasure of the Chinese people. His fat little stooge, Kim Jong Un, develops nuclear weapons with help from China (nudge, nudge, wink, wink). North Korea may be used as a disposable pawn in a nuclear attack on South Korea, Japan or the US. How does this end?

Oceania

Australia and New Zealand are both doing fairly well. These two countries are most likely to survive a global meltdown. However, they will need to learn to make things for themselves instead of importing so many manufactured goods. They will also need to be able to defend themselves from any desperate surviving superpowers.

South and Central America

Lots has been written about revolutions and emigration in the Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries of the New World. However, people who write in English almost never tell the truth about the history of these countries and how it relates to the current immigration crisis. What follows is a bit of a simplification. There are three groups in “Latin” America: Indios (the original inhabitants), mestizos (people of mixed heritage) and blancos (European-descendants, whites). There were great civilizations in the New World which were destroyed by invading Europeans. The descendants of these civilizations were subjugated, discriminated against (to this day) and reduced to poverty. Mestizos were allowed to rise to middle class status. However, it is the pureblood Spanish and Portuguese descendants who still mostly rule and have most of the land in many of these countries (and American States like New Mexico). Marxist and other revolutionary ideologues have played on the grievances of the poor Indios and poor mestizos to sway them to their side. US companies, supported by the US government, did not help matters by siding with the blancos and helping them to keep down the nonwhites. What about drugs you say? Take a look at pictures of the drug lords. Be honest. What kind of people do they look like? Yeah, guess what? They are mostly blancos. If they were walking the streets of Madrid, they would not stick out. Now look at immigrants coming over the border. What do they look like? Yeah, they look like the statues of ancient Mayans – because that’s what many of them are, Mayans, not Spaniards. Many don’t speak Spanish, which, and some people seem to forget this, is a European language spoken by people who live in Europe. Poor Indios seeking to escape the murderous drug gangs founded by blancos are desperately trying to reach safety in the US. I know, we can’t take them all in. So, maybe we need to stop coddling corrupt blancos and step in on the right side “down there”. Fix the problem at the source.

Canada

Canada’s Prime Minister is a weak-willed, corrupt Nepo-Baby with questionable loyalty to his own country. That is all.

The United States

I have covered many of the problems of the US in past blogs, so I will be brief. The hereditary elite in this country, mostly Anglo-Saxon and Dutch Episcopalians, have degenerated both intellectually and morally. Unfortunately, they still control vast resources, both physical and social. They control access to the best educations and systematically deny it to the vast majority of Americans. They control access to the best jobs including in key government agencies like the CIA and systematically deny it to the vast majority of Americans. They own vast quantities of the land in this country and would like to deny as much as possible of it to other Americans. For all our faults, we have better chances to improve out lot than the citizens of most countries. Most of our chains are psychological. We can deprogram ourselves from the soul-destroying fantasies of Hollywood and the false narratives of the mainstream media. We can buy land (still) and build our own secure holds. We can raise and educate our own children. We can be who we want to be. Who the founders wanted us to be. Who we should be.

Gestalt #106 – Water

Personal needs

We need between 2 – 4 liters of water each day to survive. Dehydration is one of the quickest killers. Further, we need clean water, something we may not always be able to assume is available. Fun fact. The Bronte sisters, authors of such classics as “Jane Eyre” and “Wuthering Heights” died early, likely because they drank water contaminated by runoff from very public outhouses and the exudates of a nearby graveyard.

There are different ways to secure water. One is to be hooked up to a municipal system which assures you that the water is clean. These assurances are not always accurate. What happens if the power goes out in your area? No water. What happens if there is a problem at the local water sanitation center? Boil orders are becoming increasingly common. What about if your water system is hacked and poisons are added to it? This has actually already happened.

Alternatives to depending on city water include having your own well or cistern. Many people in rural areas depend on wells. If you go this route make sure you get your well water tested regularly. Also probably helpful to have a reverse osmosis system to purify your water. You can get specific filters that will be designed to remove specific contaminates identified in your water. In dry areas, cisterns are an option. I know of one fellow who bought an old milk truck, cleaned the inside thoroughly, dug a trench, buried the container, ran a pipe from his roof water catchment center to the now underground container, had a pump to bring the water to his house and cleaned the water with a reverse osmosis system. He claimed he could collect enough water in one day to last him and his wife one year. He would make sure that he collected the water before the crop dusters were active so that the water be as clean as possible. If you are handy, and have a strong back, look into Earthships. These are homes that can be made with dirt and old tires. They have been designed to use water sparingly. You can find them in New Mexico, not far from Taos.

In an emergency, you may need to depend on surface water. Know where the closest, available to you, surface water is located. Have a plan to clean it. Boiling is a tried and true approach to killing biological contaminants. If you Google “water filters”, a number of options will appear. Do some research and decide which one will work best for you.

National and International needs

Wars in the future may occur due to water shortages. This is completely unnecessary. We live on a water planet. There is plenty of water. We just need to be smart about obtaining and cleaning it.

Parts of Africa experience famines because there is not enough available water for agriculture. There are huge aquifers of water in Africa which could be tapped and would provide plenty of water for agriculture. Failure to develop these resources is a disgrace.

The United States is largely desert. Most of our population is in the non-desert areas.
Los Angeles would be a desert if water wasn’t pumped in from the outside. Watch “Chinatown” for a lesson in what happens to people who ask too many questions about where that water comes from. The Colorado River is being drained dry to provide water to American cities it passes near. Watch the Mexican movie “Sleep Dealer” to see the effects of the various American Colorado River projects on Mexican agriculture.

Fortunately, the North American desert is right next to a huge source of water, the Pacific Ocean. We know how to desalinate ocean water and make it fit for drinking and agriculture. Unfortunately, there are complete idiots stopping this from happening (Poseidon desalination project is rejected, Los Angeles Times, May 12, 2022). Los Angeles is going to dry up and blow away if they don’t get their act together. I know I shouldn’t ask why. “Forget it, Monotreme. It’s Chinatown”, right?

Australia is sensibly building desalination plants. They have to, or they are toast (with or without vegemite).

You know, it would be possible to build really big desalination plants and create really big water pipelines to make many of the world’s desserts bloom. We have the technology. We need the energy. Solar can help and is appropriate. However, to do the really, really big projects I’m thinking of, we need nuclear power, best of all would be fusion power. I’ll write about Energy in a future blog.

Interplanetary water needs

Just for fun.

Gestalt #96 – Monkey Pox

Monkeypox virus (MPV), is a human orthopoxvirus. This family of viruses includes variola virus (smallpox) and several other viruses associated with animals such as camelpox. As everyone knows, smallpox is one of the most feared viruses on Earth. It was eradicated with an effective vaccine program (back when most people believed vaccines work). Bioweapons experts have long been concerned that smallpox could be weaponized or even just released in its natural state since few people today have been vaccinated against it. Government contingency plans for a smallpox epidemic include surrounding affected communities with barbed wire and guarding access points with armed soldiers until everyone can be vaccinated. So, is a pox virus epidemic serious? Yes, it is.

Monkeypox, in the past, was primarily transmitted from animals to people. Despite its name, the natural host of monkeypox is thought to be rodents. It got its name because it was first identified after a colony of monkeys were infected. Human-to-human transmission of monkeypox has occurred before the current outbreak, but was rare and involved very close physical contact. Monkeypox can be spread by direct skin-to-skin contact, fomites and respiratory droplets. Symptoms include: fever, swelling of lymph nodes, headache, backpain and muscle aches. Later, the skin may erupt into rashes that change to pus filled vesicles that may appear on the face, hands, feet, mouth, genitals and eyes. The fatality rate is between 1 and 10%. It causes more severe symptoms in children.

The current outbreak of monkeypox is concerning because the virus is behaving differently than it has in the past. Monkeypox is endemic to Africa and the current outbreak is thought to have originated there, although there is no proof that this is true. However, it is true that travelers to Africa have returned to Europe with the infection. What is surprising about the current outbreak is that the virus is being transmitted human-to-human-to-human with some apparent efficiency. Much has been made about the transmission between men who have sex with men. Focusing on this fact appears to me to be intended to decrease concern among the general population. I wonder: have the people pushing this narrative forgotten about AIDS? One of the biggest concerns when the AIDS pandemic started was: would HIV ever evolve the ability to be transmitted via respiratory droplets? It didn’t. However, monkeypox has started with the ability to be transmitted with respiratory droplets. What is not often reported is that some of the current monkeypox patients include families of heterosexuals.

We are told that monkeypox is much milder than smallpox. This is true. However, smallpox started as a milder disease that got more severe as it infected more people and was selected to evade the immune system. Sound familiar? The soothers won’t tell you this. The soothers also won’t tell you that monkeypox has never spread to so many countries so quickly. Or passed human-to-human-to-human from Africa to the UK to Australia. Or passed human-to-human-to-human from Africa to Canada to the US. The soothers also won’t tell you that the Soviet Union had an aggressive bioweapons program that sought to weaponize monkeypox through genetic manipulation. Let that sink in. We are currently in a proxy war with Russia. They have talked about Ukraine having bioweapons which everyone who understands Russian propaganda means that the Russians are thinking about using bioweapons. Now a virus that the Russian government has previously selected as a candidate bioweapon is spreading in NATO countries in an unprecedented fashion. This could be coincidence. But shouldn’t the possibility that there is something unnatural about this virus be given just a teensy-weensy consideration, just to be safe?

A draft sequence of the monkeypox virus genome from a patient in Portugual has recently been released. The authors should be congratulated for doing this so quickly. Analysis of this sequence and publication of sequence from other patients would be useful and should be released as soon as possible.

This outbreak may sputter and extinguish itself. But then again, it may not. I don’t like the way this one “feels”.

References

Monkeypox. WHO. 19 May 2022.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox

Monkeypox: Plans in place to stock up on treatments if infections rise. BBC. May 19, 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61493329

Viking Age Smallpox Complicates Story of Viral Evolution. James Gorman. July 23, 2020.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/science/smallpox-vikings-genetics.htm l

Monkeypox could be used as bioweapon. Steve Mitchell. UPI. June 9, 2002.
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2002/06/09/Monkeypox-could-be-used-as-bioweapon/19421023612300/

First draft genome sequence of Monkeypox virus associated with the suspected multi-country outbreak, May 2022 (confirmed case in Portugal). Isidro et al. May 2022.
https://virological.org/t/first-draft-genome-sequence-of-monkeypox-virus-associated-with-the-suspected-multi-country-outbreak-may-2022-confirmed-case-in-portugal/799

Gestalt#37 – SARS-2 Pandemic

The ANZAS Protocol

Australia and New Zealand have a shared history that goes back centuries. They also share an important current characteristic – they have had very few coronavirus cases and deaths. Australia had a total of 28,811 cases and 909 deaths. New Zealand has had 1,948 cases and 25 deaths. These two countries have lower absolute populations that the US. But even when correcting for this, they have been extraordinarily successful in maintaining normal daily activities while still protecting their people from SARS-2. How were they able to achieve this? In four words: They Closed Their Borders.

From the Health Department of Australia:

Australia’s borders are closed. The only people who can travel to Australia are:

Australian citizens
residents
immediate family members
travellers who have been in New Zealand for the previous 14 days (not including time in managed quarantine).

People arriving in Australia may be quarantined for 14 days and might have to comply with other state and territory travel restrictions.

And from New Zealand:

New Zealand Prime Minister Says Borders Will Remain Closed to Tourists Until Citizens Are Vaccinated

There is no reason why the US cannot have few to no COVID-19 deaths and have relatively normal social and economic activity. All we have to do is close our borders as Australia and New Zealand have done. Could someone ask public health officials and politicians why they are choosing death and economic destruction instead?

Conveyor Belt to Death

Many governors are titrating their movement restrictions and mask rules based on hospital capacity. It is certainly better to not overwhelm hospitals. But even better would be to stop the conveyor belt to death that we are currently operating. You see, if we keep hospitals full to capacity with COVID-19 patients, we are guaranteeing a constant supply of corpses. Although the number of patients who survive hospitalization has improved, 3.7% of patients who are currently hospitalized will die. Most of those who die will be old or poor and sick. These are the same people who require Medicare and Medicaid. One hopes that some politicians aren’t looking at the declining expenses associated with the deaths of Medicare and Medicaid recipients with glee.

Genetic Weapons

From Reuters, January 30, 2021, Kristy Needham

BGI Group, the world’s largest genomics company, has worked with China’s military on research that ranges from mass testing for respiratory pathogens to brain science, a Reuters review of research, patent filings and other documents has found.

[snip]

…top U.S. security officials have warned American labs against using Chinese tests because of concern China was seeking to gather foreign genetic data for its own research

[snip]

The U.S. government has recently been warned by an expert panel that adversary countries and non-state actors might find and target genetic weaknesses in the U.S. population and a competitor such as China could use genetics to augment the strength of its own military personnel.

[snip]

BGI has worked on PLA projects seeking to make members of the ethnic Han Chinese majority less susceptible to altitude sickness, Reuters found, genetic research that would benefit soldiers in some border areas.

I will have more to say about this in future blogs. But here are a couple of take aways. The Chinese government is using a company called BGI (Beijing Genomics Institute) to acquire American genetic data. There are concerns that they will use this information to create biological weapons that will kill most Americans but leave Han Chinese unharmed. The plan would be do to this with viruses. They are also working on mining genomic information to create genetically superior human beings that they will control. Yes, this is possible. Yes, they are doing it. More to come.

The CSL Vaccine Mystery

In April of 2010, pandemic flu vaccine administration was suspended for children under 5 in Australia due to reports of serious adverse reactions in children. The vaccine involved was produced by an Australian company, CSL.

From the Department of Health and Ageing (Australian Government), April 30, 2010

A week long national evaluation of cases of fever with convulsions in young children following a seasonal flu vaccination has so far found no pattern of increased incidence of this side effect, other than higher numbers in WA.

While much has been done to understand this, we require additional time to complete our investigations. Given the ongoing and incomplete scientific and clinical case review, the moratorium on the use of seasonal influenza vaccine in children 5 years and less will continue.

Judging by this year’s North American experience during winter where pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza has been the predominant flu strain, especially for younger people under 65 years, we predict that swine flu will be the predominant flu in our winter this year. Free swine flu vaccine is available as a choice for parents and is available for all people 6 months and over.

As near as I can tell, this was the last official notice from the Australian government on this issue. Presumably, the ban on vaccinating children under 5 remains in place. Given that flu season is about to begin in Australia and that children typically experience the highest attack rates, this policy may have serious implications for the spread of pandemic flu in Australia. Has the Australian government found the cause of the apparent spike in adverse reactions in Western Australia? We don’t know. There is no mention of a problem with the vaccine for children at the CSL website.

Afaik, there is only one report that suggests why the vaccine apparently caused severe reactions in some children.

From The West Australian, May 2, 2010

Professor Petrovsky reportedly found that this year’s vaccine contained more of the residue than previous years because it consisted of several inactivated seasonal strains of influenza vius combined with the pandemic H1N1 sine flu strain and RNA extracted from the vaccine triggered “an enormous reaction” in human immune-system cells in vitro.

Prof Petrovsky’s claims were reportedly supported by Melbourne immunologist Professor Bryan Willams, who said he had been planning to test the same theory before he heard about Professor Petrovsky’s experiment.

Vaccine manufacturer CSL has not yet responded to the claims.

The claims of high levels of RNA in the vaccine can be easily verified or refuted. The fact that there has been no response from either the Australian government or CSL is disturbing. One wonders whether the close ties between CSL and the Australian government has caused this odd silence. If there is contamination in the CSL vaccine, the Australian government should say so and immediately order vaccine from another company. Protecting children should be a higher priority than protecting CSL.

Pregnant women are at greatly increased risk of critical illness and death from pandemic H1N1 – the ANZIC study

A previous study in California provided evidence that pregnant women were much more likely to die of pandemic H1N1 than other people. Now, a new study based on information from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care (ANZIC) Influenza Investigators registry, provides further information documenting and quantifying this risk.

From the study:

The overall risk of admission to an intensive care unit for non-pregnant women of childbearing age was 1 in 35 300 compared with 1 in 14 600 for gestations less than 20 weeks, 1 in 2700 for gestations of 20 weeks or more, and 1 in 5500 for the postpartum period. Compared with non-pregnant women of childbearing age, pregnant women with a gestation of 20 weeks or more had a 13-fold greater risk of admission to an intensive care unit as a result of 2009 H1N1 infection (relative risk 13.2, 95% confidence interval 9.6 to 18.3). The corresponding risk for postpartum women was 6.4 (2.6 to 15.7) and for women with a gestation of less than 20 weeks was 2.4 (1.3 to 4.6). Overall, compared with non-pregnant women of childbearing age the relative risk of women who were pregnant or post partum being admitted to an intensive care unit with 2009 H1N1 infection was 7.4 (5.5 to 10.0).

[snip]

Overall, seven women (11%) died. Generally, influenza has been an extremely rare cause of maternal death. Between 1997 and 2005 in Australia, 24 maternal deaths occurred as a result of any infection, or 1.1 deaths per 100 000 births. Only one of these deaths was due to influenza. No maternal death were attributed to influenza in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2005….a maternal mortality of 11% is high when compared with any other obstetric condition.

[snip]

Pregnant women, particularly in the second half of pregnancy, are more likely than non-pregnant women to develop critical illness associated with 2009 H1N1 influenza. Among women who developed critical illness, the outcomes were poor, including death of the mother or baby.

This study indicates that pandemic H1N1 significantly increased the odds of critical illness and death among pregnant women in Australia and New Zealand in 2009.

The number of pregnant women who were infected with pandemic H1N1 in Australia and New Zealand in 2009 is not known. However, preliminary reports suggest that the number of adults infected was a relatively small percent of the total population. If pandemic H1N1 gains the ability to spread more efficiently among adults, we can therefore expect a much higher amount of critical illness and death among pregnant women unless they have been effectively vaccinated or receive prompt treatment with antivirals.

Reference

The Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care (ANZIC) Influenza Investigators (2010) Critical illness due to 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in pregnant and postpartum women: population based cohort study. BMJ, 340:c1279

Mystery virus causing pneumonia in Syndey

There is a report today of an infectious disease which is causing widespread illness in Sydney, Australia. From The Daily Telegraph, March 15, 2010:

SYDNEYSIDERS are being hit by a virus that is not only taking down people but also hospital staff.

It is an unseasonal virus, not the swine flu, that is really nasty and the emergency department has been flooded by people coming in sick with it.

It has caused some people, even young ones, to get pneumonia.

This is not the right time of the year but it is amazing how it is spreading. It seems to be attacking the head so people feel like they are getting the flu.

They will have a nasty cough and we are seeing a lot of sore throats and infections that are so severe we have to admit people.

Some patients have had throats so swollen they can’t swallow or breath properly and even their neck is swollen.

Although the report suggests that the virus is not swine flu, it is not clear that this statement is based on testing. Further details on the pathogen causing this illness would be usefiul.

Lessons from Australia

We are told by some that because Australia survived their flu season, the impact of pandemic H1N1 on the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be mild. Let’s consider what did and did not happen in Australia to see if that is a reasonable assumption.

First, the numbers.

From: AUSTRALIAN INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE SUMMARY REPORT. No.20, 2009, REPORTING PERIOD:  19 September 2009 – 25 September 2009 [hat-tip, gsgs]

There were 179 deaths associated with the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in Australia between  19 June 2009 and 25 September 2009.

[snip]

The median age of confirmed cases that died is 51 years (range 2-86 years of age), compared to the median age for deaths from seasonal flu from 2001 to 2006 which is 83 years.

[snip]

Of particular note is the difference in the age distribution of this novel influenza virus to seasonal influenza and the increasing median age as the severity of the disease progresses: 21 years for all confirmed cases; 31 years for hospitalised cases; 43 years for ICU cases; and 53 years for deaths.

[snip]

The median number of annual deaths in Australia for the years 2001 to 2006 from influenza and pneumonia is 3,089 and for laboratory diagnosed influenza is 40.

[snip]

Although mortality data from all causes are generally not available for the current year, some information on influenza and pneumonia deaths are reported by individual jurisdictions from their Births, Deaths and Marriages Registers. In Western Australia, pneumonia and influenza deaths accounted for approximately 14.5% of all deaths in the final week of August, which is below levels seen at the same time in 2007 and 2008 (Figure 13).

Let’s consider what these numbers mean.

First, the age of people who died was much younger than during a normal flu year; the median age for deaths is 51 for pandemic flu but 83 for seasonal flu. Life expectancy at birth in Australia is currently 81. Thus, seasonal flu likely has little impact on the life expectancy of most Australians. In sharp contrast, pandemic flu caused severe illness and killed much younger Australians who likely would otherwise have lived much longer. Thus, simply comparing numbers of deaths caused by seasonal and pandemic H1N1 is misleading.

Second, in a normal flu-year, there are only 40 laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths. This year, there were 179, 4 times as many. Although there did not appear to be more deaths in the broader pneumonia and influenza category, we should remember that the people dying in this group are primarily very elderly. The numbers of young people who died of pandemic flu in Australia vastly exceeds the number who would die in a normal flu year.

Third, many interventions which are not usually undertaken were applied during this year’s flu season. Schools were closed for at least some period of time. This has previously been shown to limit the spread of flu viruses which would thus protect older Australians from getting infected. In addition, Tamiflu was aggressively prescribed for patients exhibiting flu this past season. This likely decreased the death rate from pandemic flu but also may have broken chains of infection, which would also likely decrease the number of older Australians infected with flu.

What can we expect based on the Australian results? A much higher rate of death in younger people than with seasonal flu, something we have already seen in the US and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Australia was much more aggressive in treating patients with Tamiflu than the United States is. As a result, we can likely expect higher death rates both directly from lack of treatment and indirectly because we are less likely to interrupt chains of infection. This will result in more  Americans getting infected and, consequently, more deaths.

Although the lessons of the Australian experience would appear obvious, there is no indication that the CDC has learned anything from it.

High incidence, low case fatality rate countries

What percent of the people who get sick with pandemic flu will die? When we talk about how dangerous a virus is, this number, the case fatality rate  (CFR), is usually provided to quantify the risk. This CFR is of great interest to public health professionals and the general public for obvious reasons.

Although we are several months into the new H1N1 pandemic, we still do not have a good estimate of the CFR. Estimates vary from less than .1% (the same as seasonal flu) to 8%, three times worse than the  Spanish Influenza pandemic that devastated the world in 1918. To some extent, these differences are due to different methods of study. However, it is also possible that the CFR of the virus varies as result of environmental factors, distinct from the genetics of the virus itself.

One way to address this possibility is to compare countries with high and low CFRs. Because the initial CFR and the CFR observed after the virus has started to spread within a population may be different, I will provide the CFR for only the 20 countries with the highest incidence of the new H1N1:

  1. Brunei – 0.1%
  2. Australia – 0.3%
  3. Cayman Islands – 2.3%
  4. Chile – 0.8%
  5. New Zealand – .6%
  6. Malta – 0%
  7. Cyprus – 0%
  8. Canada – 0.56%
  9. Singapore – 0.4%
  10. Samoa – 0.0%
  11. Israel – 0.1%
  12. UK – 0.3%
  13. Panama – 0.3%
  14. Uruguay – 4%
  15. Iceland – 0%
  16. Mexico – 0.9%
  17. Costa Rica – 3.1%
  18. US – 0.9%
  19. Thailand – 0.7%
  20. Peru – 0.7%

For comparison, the worldwide average CFR is 0.8%. Three countries with a relatively high incidence of the virus had no deaths: Malta, Cyprus and Samoa. All three are small, island nations. All three had populations below 1 million. However, one of the countries with a relatively high CFR, the Cayman Islands, is also a small island country. A single death in the Cayman Islands gave it a relatively high CFR due its small population. So, we should probably disregard small countries from our analysis.

Australia and the UK are relatively large countries with relatively low CFRs: 0.3%. Costa Rica and Uruguay are moderate sized countries with relatively high CFRs: 3.1% and 4%, respectively. Although there may be multiple factors that account for the differences between these two pairs of countries, one is immediately obvious: money.

Here is the rank for each of these four countries by GDP per capita:

  • United Kingdom – 15
  • Australia – 19
  • Uruguay – 61
  • Costa Rica – 74

This wealth difference could affect CFR in a number of different ways. First, it may be that rich countries are better able to detect mild H1N1 cases. However, Uruguay and Costa Rica are both reporting a high incidence of H1N1, suggesting that these countries are testing cases aggressively. A second explanation is that rich countries offer better medical care. This is the explanation that I favor. Both the UK and Australia have been handing out Tamiflu to large numbers of people. It is not clear that Tamiflu has been given out as freely in Uruguay and Costa Rica. Further, it is reasonable to suppose that more sick people have received advanced medical care in the richer countries.

Although I believe that there are multiple variables that influence CFR, money is likely to be an important one.

So, who stands to lose the most as a result of the “Let-it-spread” policy of the World Health Organisation? Why, the poor countries, of course.

Someone should tell them.