Gestalt #106 – Water

Personal needs

We need between 2 – 4 liters of water each day to survive. Dehydration is one of the quickest killers. Further, we need clean water, something we may not always be able to assume is available. Fun fact. The Bronte sisters, authors of such classics as “Jane Eyre” and “Wuthering Heights” died early, likely because they drank water contaminated by runoff from very public outhouses and the exudates of a nearby graveyard.

There are different ways to secure water. One is to be hooked up to a municipal system which assures you that the water is clean. These assurances are not always accurate. What happens if the power goes out in your area? No water. What happens if there is a problem at the local water sanitation center? Boil orders are becoming increasingly common. What about if your water system is hacked and poisons are added to it? This has actually already happened.

Alternatives to depending on city water include having your own well or cistern. Many people in rural areas depend on wells. If you go this route make sure you get your well water tested regularly. Also probably helpful to have a reverse osmosis system to purify your water. You can get specific filters that will be designed to remove specific contaminates identified in your water. In dry areas, cisterns are an option. I know of one fellow who bought an old milk truck, cleaned the inside thoroughly, dug a trench, buried the container, ran a pipe from his roof water catchment center to the now underground container, had a pump to bring the water to his house and cleaned the water with a reverse osmosis system. He claimed he could collect enough water in one day to last him and his wife one year. He would make sure that he collected the water before the crop dusters were active so that the water be as clean as possible. If you are handy, and have a strong back, look into Earthships. These are homes that can be made with dirt and old tires. They have been designed to use water sparingly. You can find them in New Mexico, not far from Taos.

In an emergency, you may need to depend on surface water. Know where the closest, available to you, surface water is located. Have a plan to clean it. Boiling is a tried and true approach to killing biological contaminants. If you Google “water filters”, a number of options will appear. Do some research and decide which one will work best for you.

National and International needs

Wars in the future may occur due to water shortages. This is completely unnecessary. We live on a water planet. There is plenty of water. We just need to be smart about obtaining and cleaning it.

Parts of Africa experience famines because there is not enough available water for agriculture. There are huge aquifers of water in Africa which could be tapped and would provide plenty of water for agriculture. Failure to develop these resources is a disgrace.

The United States is largely desert. Most of our population is in the non-desert areas.
Los Angeles would be a desert if water wasn’t pumped in from the outside. Watch “Chinatown” for a lesson in what happens to people who ask too many questions about where that water comes from. The Colorado River is being drained dry to provide water to American cities it passes near. Watch the Mexican movie “Sleep Dealer” to see the effects of the various American Colorado River projects on Mexican agriculture.

Fortunately, the North American desert is right next to a huge source of water, the Pacific Ocean. We know how to desalinate ocean water and make it fit for drinking and agriculture. Unfortunately, there are complete idiots stopping this from happening (Poseidon desalination project is rejected, Los Angeles Times, May 12, 2022). Los Angeles is going to dry up and blow away if they don’t get their act together. I know I shouldn’t ask why. “Forget it, Monotreme. It’s Chinatown”, right?

Australia is sensibly building desalination plants. They have to, or they are toast (with or without vegemite).

You know, it would be possible to build really big desalination plants and create really big water pipelines to make many of the world’s desserts bloom. We have the technology. We need the energy. Solar can help and is appropriate. However, to do the really, really big projects I’m thinking of, we need nuclear power, best of all would be fusion power. I’ll write about Energy in a future blog.

Interplanetary water needs

Just for fun.

Gestalt #104 – Nation-States in Crisis

I’m an American, so my blogs tend to skew towards American issues. However, what happens in other countries affects Americans. Also, many of the issues the United States faces are also faced by other countries. This blog will describe how nation-states are facing crisis within their own countries and how the conditions within one country can affect others.

Europe

The most obvious crisis in Europe today is the Russian War against Ukraine. This is the worst visible crisis Europe has faced since WW II. Putin is destroying Russia by engaging in this unnecessary war. I do not believe that Russia as a country will survive this. There are many ethnic groups within Russia that have wanted to free themselves from ethnic Russian domination for decades. Only violent suppression by the Russian military has allowed the “Russian” federation to remain intact. I suspect that there are groups within the Federation watching with glee as the Russian military destroys itself in Ukraine. Even after there is peace in Ukraine, there will be no peace in the Russian Federation.

Russia has depended almost entirely on exploiting their natural resources, especially natural gas, to provide money to support their military, which was their one claim to fame. The Russians have frightened the Europeans, even the Germans, into looking for alternatives. It won’t be easy to get alternative sources of energy up and running before winter 2022. Therefore, European citizens should start now to seriously consider how they will keep warm this winter. Their ancestors lived with a lot less energy per person than is used today. They relied on simple solutions like wearing heavy sweaters in their homes and using wool blankets and quilts to keep warm at night. I predict that such measures will make a popular comeback this winter.

Ukraine and Russia are major sources of grains for Africa and the Middle East. The Russian military is destroying the ability of Ukraine to produce as much grain as in the past. This may result in destabilization of these regions.

Africa

Africa has tremendous natural resources. Properly exploited, many Africans could have a high standard of living. Unfortunately, ethnic and religious hatreds and corruption has caused many countries in this continent to under-perform. These problems originated in part due to colonialism. Colonial powers such as the United Kingdom drew up artificial boundaries for countries in Africa that did not respect ethnic, religious and historical boundaries. This resulted in much unnecessary bloodshed as different groups vied for power. The Rule of Law is the most important factor in whether a country will be successful or will descend into chaos. It is even more important than democracy. Rule of Law was not established firmly in many African countries before the colonial powers left, with predictable consequences. Although Europeans decry violence in African countries, they themselves facilitate it by doing business with brutal dictators who oppress their people. These African dictators often have expensive properties in European countries and have transferred much of their countries wealth to these European countries. The people at the top live in unimaginable luxury while their citizens starve to death.

As a result of mismanagement, many African countries are dependent on inputs, especially food, from Western donor countries. I’m afraid this may not continue. As mentioned above, the Russian War in Ukraine will decrease the amount of food available for Africans. This is almost certain to result in mass starvation which will in turn lead to societal unrest and mass migration. I don’t see any external solution to this problem. Africans must become truly independent, not just in name, from Europe. There are some African countries which do have decent governments. But all countries in Africa will be under pressure. The best hope for Africa would be the rise of some visionary leader who can bring order and prosperity. Only time will tell if one such individual arises in the troubled times to come.

Middle East

I think most people are aware of many of the issues that afflict the Middle East. I won’t repeat those here. I will say that water and food are problems that will get worse and will lead to even more political instability. For this region, desalination and high-tech agriculture are the only solutions. I have seen many nice pie-in-the-sky proposals for ideal communities utilizing these technologies. However, the vast majority of the people in the Middle East have not seen the benefits from the proper application of technology to their problems. We will see what happens in the future.

Asia

Most who read my blogs will know of my preoccupation with China. I think Xi Jinping and the PLA represent the number one threat to world order. As in the Middle East, technology could solve China’s water and food problems. However, Xi Jinping is stuck in a 20th Century, maybe even a 19th Century, mindset and is bent on world conquest instead of self-improvement of China. This means Chinese citizens will experience woe beyond their imaginings. Desertification will expand, pollution will continue unchecked and more and more agricultural land will become unproductive. The Chinese population is crashing. Large numbers of spoiled Little Emperors, the only hope for their families, will be killed in useless wars of attempted conquest. It would be great if the Chinese people threw the Communist Party out of China. Unfortunately, I see no obvious signs that this will happen any time soon.

Before dismissing China entirely, I do want to call people’s attention to some dangerous experiments they are conducting. The Chinese government is indirectly funding experiments aimed at producing super-intelligent children. No, this is not a joke. This is not science fiction. It is possible and the Chinese government is attempting to make it happen. I do not know if they will be successful. There are certain types of knowledge which they do not have in house. However, they are attempting to buy it. This is the one wild card with China. If they are successful, the rest of the world will be in trouble.Trouble like you cannot even imagine.

Japan will be interesting to watch.

Pacific

Not much to say about Australia and New Zealand. These are well-run countries with abundant natural resources. They need to develop their own manufacturing capacity. But, assuming that they do this, they should be fine. If they aren’t invaded by China.

Americas

The United States is the 800 pound gorilla in the Americas. However, I will restrict this blog mostly to other countries. North America includes the US, Canada, Mexico and the countries of Central America. Canada is stable; Mexico is semi-stable; however, many of the Central American countries are unstable. Corruption and long mistreatment of the indigenous peoples of Central America by the descendants of the Conquistadors has caused this. I don’t think the United States will be able to continue to ignore the root cause of our problems with illegal immigration. At some point, direct military intervention and perhaps even occupation may be necessary. The Roman Empire did not arise out of a desire for conquest, at least not entirely. It arose out of fear of instability on their borders and being overrun by desperate people fleeing violence and chaos. See the parallels?

More and more South American countries are failing. Venezuela is the most obvious example. Colombia is immediately adjacent and has recently elected a Socialist. Hopefully, Colombia will not make the same mistakes as its neighbor did. Some countries in South America, like Chile, have been relatively stable. However, the forces of instability are rising. Time will tell whether South America will be able to maintain order or whether the whole continent descends into Venezuela-type chaos.

Globalization is dying

I have said this before when it was less apparent. But surely now people can see that depending on other countries for basic necessities is foolish. Every nation-state will need to look at its resources and determine how it can best take care of its people without external inputs. Smaller countries may need to join with larger countries in order to satisfy their needs. I haven’t written much about the role of Science and Technology in what is to come. That will be for a future blog.

Gestalt #96 – Monkey Pox

Monkeypox virus (MPV), is a human orthopoxvirus. This family of viruses includes variola virus (smallpox) and several other viruses associated with animals such as camelpox. As everyone knows, smallpox is one of the most feared viruses on Earth. It was eradicated with an effective vaccine program (back when most people believed vaccines work). Bioweapons experts have long been concerned that smallpox could be weaponized or even just released in its natural state since few people today have been vaccinated against it. Government contingency plans for a smallpox epidemic include surrounding affected communities with barbed wire and guarding access points with armed soldiers until everyone can be vaccinated. So, is a pox virus epidemic serious? Yes, it is.

Monkeypox, in the past, was primarily transmitted from animals to people. Despite its name, the natural host of monkeypox is thought to be rodents. It got its name because it was first identified after a colony of monkeys were infected. Human-to-human transmission of monkeypox has occurred before the current outbreak, but was rare and involved very close physical contact. Monkeypox can be spread by direct skin-to-skin contact, fomites and respiratory droplets. Symptoms include: fever, swelling of lymph nodes, headache, backpain and muscle aches. Later, the skin may erupt into rashes that change to pus filled vesicles that may appear on the face, hands, feet, mouth, genitals and eyes. The fatality rate is between 1 and 10%. It causes more severe symptoms in children.

The current outbreak of monkeypox is concerning because the virus is behaving differently than it has in the past. Monkeypox is endemic to Africa and the current outbreak is thought to have originated there, although there is no proof that this is true. However, it is true that travelers to Africa have returned to Europe with the infection. What is surprising about the current outbreak is that the virus is being transmitted human-to-human-to-human with some apparent efficiency. Much has been made about the transmission between men who have sex with men. Focusing on this fact appears to me to be intended to decrease concern among the general population. I wonder: have the people pushing this narrative forgotten about AIDS? One of the biggest concerns when the AIDS pandemic started was: would HIV ever evolve the ability to be transmitted via respiratory droplets? It didn’t. However, monkeypox has started with the ability to be transmitted with respiratory droplets. What is not often reported is that some of the current monkeypox patients include families of heterosexuals.

We are told that monkeypox is much milder than smallpox. This is true. However, smallpox started as a milder disease that got more severe as it infected more people and was selected to evade the immune system. Sound familiar? The soothers won’t tell you this. The soothers also won’t tell you that monkeypox has never spread to so many countries so quickly. Or passed human-to-human-to-human from Africa to the UK to Australia. Or passed human-to-human-to-human from Africa to Canada to the US. The soothers also won’t tell you that the Soviet Union had an aggressive bioweapons program that sought to weaponize monkeypox through genetic manipulation. Let that sink in. We are currently in a proxy war with Russia. They have talked about Ukraine having bioweapons which everyone who understands Russian propaganda means that the Russians are thinking about using bioweapons. Now a virus that the Russian government has previously selected as a candidate bioweapon is spreading in NATO countries in an unprecedented fashion. This could be coincidence. But shouldn’t the possibility that there is something unnatural about this virus be given just a teensy-weensy consideration, just to be safe?

A draft sequence of the monkeypox virus genome from a patient in Portugual has recently been released. The authors should be congratulated for doing this so quickly. Analysis of this sequence and publication of sequence from other patients would be useful and should be released as soon as possible.

This outbreak may sputter and extinguish itself. But then again, it may not. I don’t like the way this one “feels”.

References

Monkeypox. WHO. 19 May 2022.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox

Monkeypox: Plans in place to stock up on treatments if infections rise. BBC. May 19, 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61493329

Viking Age Smallpox Complicates Story of Viral Evolution. James Gorman. July 23, 2020.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/science/smallpox-vikings-genetics.htm l

Monkeypox could be used as bioweapon. Steve Mitchell. UPI. June 9, 2002.
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2002/06/09/Monkeypox-could-be-used-as-bioweapon/19421023612300/

First draft genome sequence of Monkeypox virus associated with the suspected multi-country outbreak, May 2022 (confirmed case in Portugal). Isidro et al. May 2022.
https://virological.org/t/first-draft-genome-sequence-of-monkeypox-virus-associated-with-the-suspected-multi-country-outbreak-may-2022-confirmed-case-in-portugal/799

Cover up in Ghana

Two outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 have been reported recently in Ghana schools. The first was at St. Martin’s Senior High School in Adoagyire. Now another school has been hit, but there appears to be an attempt by school officials to cover up the outbreak.

From myjoyonline.com, May 29, 2010

Reports say the over 80 infected students of the Aburi Presbyterian SHS have been quarantined in one of the dormitories in the school.

One of the female students (name withheld), who spoke with our reporter, Kwaku Antwi-Otoo, alleged that the school authorities do not want their parents to know about the outbreak in the school.

“We were in class on Monday, 24th May, 2010, when we saw the school vehicle, conveying some of the female students to the hospital. We enquired why and they told us they have been infected with the H1N1 flu. The school authorities are preventing our parents from knowing so as at now, am not sure our parents are aware of the outbreaks”, the student explained.

The student explained that the school vehicle conveys 40 passengers and it did three trips, spawning suspicion that the figure could be more.

Attempts to deny or minimise outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 occur throughout the world. Kudos to the reporters in Ghana for ferreting out this outbreak. Now, the parents of the children at Aburi Presbyterian SHS know that their children are in danger. In other countries, the press is muzzled and the general public has no idea what risks they and their children are exposed to.

Having pandemic H1N1 outbreaks is nothing to be ashamed of.

Hiding them, otoh, is shameful.

[On May 30, 2010, School officials denied the report above.

From GhanaWeb, May 30, 2010

The Management of the Aburi Girls Senior High School has denied media reports that there was an outbreak of the H1N1 Flu at the school and so it had been closed down.

Speaking to the Ghana News Agency(GNA), the Headmistress of the school, Ms Sylvia Asempa, expressed concern about the unfounded report with its attendant problems.

She stressed that none of the 1400 students of the school has been infected with the disease.

However, it is worth noting that the original report was verified by public health officials in Ghana.

From myjoyonline, May 29, 2010

The Eastern Regional Director of the Ghana Health Services (GHS), Dr. Erasmus Adongo, confirmed the disease to Asempa News, but explained that the situation is under control.

“I can’t give the figures now, but the District Director told me samples that were sent to Noguchi tested H1N1-positive and we are monitoring the situation”, he explained.

So, who is telling the truth, Ms Sylvia Asempa, the Headmistress of the Aburi Girls Senior High School or Dr. Erasmus Adongo, the Eastern Regional Director of the Ghana Health Services?

One of them is lying.]

Pandemic Update – August 16, 2009

There have been over 2,200 deaths due to the new H1N1 virus.

There have been at least 478 deaths in the United States. California continues to report the most deaths (106). However, some states do not appear to be reporting their deaths. Further, the CDC no longer reports state-by-state deaths, so it is increasingly difficult to determine where the most deaths are occurring in the US. School has started in some areas and early reports indicate that the virus is already beginning to spread in them.

The number of cases and deaths appears to be increasing again in Mexico.

In South America, the cases and deaths continue to increase. Argentina has reported over 400 deaths. Other deaths are still under review. Over 277 deaths have been reported in Brazil.

In Australia, there are over 100 deaths. Complaints about the quality of care given patients are increasing.

In Asia, Japan and South Korea have reported their first cases. India has now reported 29 deaths, including a doctor. Over 60 people have died in Malaysia. Dr. Nidom, a respected flu scientist in Indonesia, has again warned against the possibility of H5N1 and H1N1 co-infecting patients and possibly creating a new “hybrid” virus that would be both highly infectious and highly lethal.

In Africa, the virus has now spread to 20 countries. Deaths have been reported in Egypt (1), Ghana (1), and South Africa (6). The South African deaths include two pregnant women and a paramedic. The number of cases in South Africa appear to be rising quickly, now over 2,800.

Additional Tamiflu-resistant isolates of the new H1N1 continue to be identified.

Africa – Situation Report 1 – August 15, 2009

20 countries in Africa have reported infections with the new H1N1 virus:

• Algeria
• Botswana
• Cape Verde
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Egypt
• Ethiopia
• Ivory Coast
• Kenya
• Libya
• Morocco
• Namibia
• Senegal
• Seychelles
• South Africa
• Sudan
• Swaziland
• Tanzania
• Tunisia
• Uganda
• Zambia

Deaths have been reported in Egypt (1) and South Africa (4).

Egypt is of especial concern because there are ongoing outbreaks of the H5N1 outbreak in humans. Thus, there is the potential for co-infection of individuals with both viruses, possibly leading to a reassortment or recombination event that could lead to a new “hybrid” virus. Such a virus might possess dangerous combinations of the parent viruses, ie, it might spread like the new H1N1 and kill like H5N1.

There are nearly 2,000 confirmed cases of infection with the new H1N1 virus in South Africa. The four deaths include a 15 year old boy from Bloemfontein, a 23 year old pregnant woman from Durban, a 42 year old paramedic in Somerset West and a 22 year old University student from Stellenbosch. The presence of a pregnant woman and a health care worker among these four is significant. There is considerable evidence indicating that pregnant women are at increased risk for severe disease and death from the new H1N1 virus. There have been anecdotal reports of people in the health professions who have died, including a news story from Argentina indicating that 10% of the deaths there were among health care workers. South Africa’s cases of pandemic flu continue to rise.

Many Africa-watchers expect that the pandemic may be particularly harsh on this Continent for two reasons. First, many Africans have other diseases, most notably, HIV/AIDS. Although we do not know what the case fatality rate is for the new flu in individuals with HIV/AIDS, it is reasonable to predict that it may be higher than in people with normal functioning immune systems. Second, access to health care is quite limited for most Africans. There is substantial evidence that people who do not receive prompt medical care are much more likely to die of the new H1N1 virus than those who do. Most African countries are too poor to afford a sufficient supply of Tamiflu to treat their people. They are also unlikely to obtain much vaccine in a timely fashion. Thus, most Africans will face the  pandemic without any of the modern tools of biomedical science.

Those who advocated unrestricted movement of the infected via airports may soon see the results of their “Let-it-Spread” philosophy on people without access to the same level of medical care that they enjoy.