29 thoughts on “Pandemic News Thread – July 10 – 16, 2022

  1. The US monkeypox response is not going well. Did we learn nothing from covid?
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/07/us-monkeypox-response-problems-covid/
    Madison Pauly July 15, 2022

    Comment: The author is making an assumption. Perhaps some learned exactly the lesson they wanted to learn. How do you delay testing and vaccines sufficiently long to make sure that the virus is impossible to eradicate? Being just a bit too slow may not be seen as a bug, but a feature. Look like you’re doing something, but do it just slowly enough that the virus can spread throughout the US. Want to bet we will see exactly the same too slow response with the next pathogen? How many times does this have to happen before you stop believing it’s an accident?

  2. Monkeypox virus found in patients’ saliva, semen, and other bodily fluids
    https://www.studyfinds.org/monkeypox-virus-saliva-semen/
    Chris Melore July 15, 2022

    A new monkeypox report is raising the level of concern that the virus could infect others through a patient’s bodily fluids. Researchers in Spain have discovered high viral loads in the saliva, semen, urine, and other samples coming from confirmed monkeypox patients.

    [snip]

    The team also discovered virus DNA is rectal (11 of 12 patients), nasal (10 of 12 patients), semen (7 of 9 patients), and fecal (8 of 12 patients) samples from the monkeypox group.

    “A couple of previous studies had already shown occasional presence of viral DNA in some samples and in some patients, but here we show that viral DNA is frequently present in various biological fluids, particularly saliva, during the acute phase of the disease, and up to 16 days after the onset of symptoms in one patient,” explains Aida Peiró, an ISGlobal researcher and first author of the study, in a media release.

    [snip]

  3. San Francisco at risk of an ‘uncontrolled monkeypox spread,’ lawmaker says
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3559619-san-francisco-at-risk-of-an-uncontrolled-monkeypox-spread-lawmaker-says/
    Olafimihan Oshin July 14, 2022

    California state Sen. Scott Wiener (D) said in a statement Thursday that the city of San Francisco is veering toward a public health crisis due to the uncontrolled spread of the monkeypox virus.

    The city’s Department of Public Health (DPH) tweeted Wednesday that its walk-in clinic will close for the remainder of the week due to the vaccine shortage. Other city clinics are working through remaining appointments and joining the DPH in “urgently asking for more doses.”

    [snip]

    We need an enormous amount of additional vaccine doses, and we need it immediately. The federal government’s failures are threatening to deeply harm our community,” Wiener added. “Once we move past this emergency, we need accountability for these failures — failures that put people’s lives and health in jeopardy.”

    [snip]

  4. ‘It’s Excruciating’: Miami Man Documents Battle With Monkeypox
    https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/its-excruciating-miami-man-documents-battle-with-monkeypox/2805672/
    Laura Rodriguez July 24, 2022

    A Miami man who’s spent more than a week in the hospital battling monkeypox is sharing his story in the hopes that others don’t have to go through it.

    [snip]

    Araujo said he first had symptoms on July 4th, when he had a fever and then chills. He thought it was just a cold but then the bumps started appearing.

    As they got bigger in size, Araujo suspected it was more than a cold and went to Jackson Memorial Hospital to get checked out.

    He thinks he became infected while at a club when he came in close contact with others.

    “Just be aware this is not just a sexually transmitted disease, this is an every day, anybody disease,” Araujo said. “Anyone can get it. You can get it any kind of way, touching a table surface I just touched, touching an ATM I just went to.”

    Araujo is on day 8 of quarantine and is documenting his experience on social media.

    “It feels like somebody struck like a match and set fire to my skin when they get bothered or touched,” he said. “I’ve never felt this kind of like dull pain, but then it’s excruciating. Like within a split second a jolt of pain and then they itch.”

    According to the Florida Department of Health, as of Thursday there were 24 confirmed monkeypox cases in Broward and two in Miami-Dade. There are 72 confirmed cases in Florida, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  5. Mysterious Ebola-like illness kills three in Tanzania: African health authorities probe outbreak of ‘strange’ bleeding disease
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11013145/Mysterious-Ebola-like-illness-kills-three-Tanzania.html
    14 July 2022 Stephen Matthews

    Three people have died from a mysterious Ebola-like disease in Tanzania. Authorities in the East African nation — just south of Kenya — have called the outbreak ‘strange’. Health chiefs have now been dispatched to investigate the illness, which has struck 13 people in total. Symptoms include a fever, headaches, fatigue and bleeding — especially from the nose.

    Tanzania has never before recorded a case of Ebola or Marburg, two deadly viruses known to cause bleeding. Yet neighbouring countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, have in the past.None of the 13 Tanzanian patients, who live in the southern Lindi region, have tested positive for either of the haemorrhagic viruses. Covid swabs also came back negative, according to the country’s ministry of health. Tanzania’s chief medical officer Aifello Sichalwen said one of the patients had fully recovered while the others were being isolated.

    [snip]

    A team of doctors and health experts have been sent to to investigate the mysterious disease amid fears it could be spreading.

    [snip]

    Ghana — located on Africa’s west coast — last week reported two suspected cases of the Marburg virus, which kills up to 90 per cent of infected patients.

    The patients were not known to each other, suggesting the disease is spreading more widely.

    Comment: 13 infected, 1 recovered, 3 dead. Case fatality rate is 75% since we do not know the ultimate fate of the 9 infected who have not died or recovered.

  6. Tanzania experts probe deadly unknown illness
    https://www.znbc.co.zm/news/tanzania-experts-probe-deadly-unknown-illness/
    Joshua Jere July 14, 2022

    Tanzania is investigating an unknown illness in the south of the country that has killed three people. In total 13 cases have been reported in Lindi region, with patients having symptoms similar to Ebola or Marburg. They have been experiencing fever, severe headaches, fatigue and bleeding, especially from the nose. But the health ministry says preliminary lab tests results rule out the Ebola and Marburg viruses in these cases. Contact tracing was ongoing and five people were currently in isolation, it said. Chief medical officer Dr Aifelo Sichalwe has urged Tanzanians to remain calm as investigations continue. He further urged anyone exhibiting similar symptoms to immediately seek medical attention.

    Comment: It would be helpful to have information on how the illness is being spread.

  7. White House Preps Monkeypox Influencers, Leaves Vax Overseas
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-preps-monkeypox-influencers-leaves-vaccines-overseas
    Scott Bixby July 14, 2022

    As monkeypox case numbers climb nationwide, the Biden administration says that it remains opposed to efforts that would bypass the bureaucratic red tape keeping more than 1 million doses of vaccine stuck on another continent.

    But with fears mounting that the previously rare disease now is on the verge of becoming endemic in the United States, patients, physicians and public health experts say that refusal to learn from the mistakes of the coronavirus pandemic is unacceptable—particularly when a safe and effective vaccine is already in reach.

    “It’s just déjà vu all over again,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown Law Center. “When you have a fast-moving, out-of-control spread of monkeypox in the United States, when the White House goes the extra mile and purchases a million doses, and then to not have them available to respond in a smart, effective way, it’s intolerable.”

    “There literally is no excuse.”

    [snip]

    “The FDA has their heads in the ground!” said Michael Donnelly, a data scientist and a prominent critic of the public health response to monkeypox. “Thousands of GBTQ Americans are denied these vital vaccines every day while they sit in a warehouse in Denmark. It’s not a question of if this process will cause a delay—the delay is already here.”

    [snip]

    That inspection snafu has slowed the number of doses available to Americans at high risk for infection down to a trickle, and has turned obtaining a dose into a grim combination of The Hunger Games and a radio call-in competition for concert tickets. In New York City, the current epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, the announcement that 1,700 doses of the vaccine would be made available by the city’s health department on Tuesday turned into a free-for-all as the appointment website crashed within seconds of going live. For nearly two hours, thousands of would-be patients hit “Refresh” on the site hoping to obtain a shot, with nearly all of them closing their browsers without an appointment.

    [snip]

    The risks of the delayed vaccine rollout grow every day. With tens of thousands of monkeypox cases worldwide likely going unconfirmed, a number floated grimly by one administration source, the United States is quickly approaching a day when containment is no longer feasible, and the illness becomes a fixture of American life.

    “We are very much at risk of monkeypox becoming entrenched in the U.S.,” said Bottcher. “And unlike many purely sexually transmitted infections, there are still many questions and unknowns about other forms of monkeypox transmission outside of sexual contact.”

    That day, Freedman said, may already be here.

    “I don’t think, whatever we do, that monkeypox is now going to go away,” Freedman said. “I think the best we can hope for is to control this outbreak. Of course, any delay in getting people vaccinated is going to prevent us from being able to minimize or prevent the further growth of the disease.”

    Comment: Imagine what it means if monkeypox becomes a “fixture of American life”. Which activities will be safe?

    Daycare? No.
    School? No.
    Concerts? No.
    Public bathrooms? No.
    Retail stores? No.
    Restaurants? No.
    Hotels? No.

    Plan accordingly? Jeeze, what’s left?

    Software developers who can work from home and farmers may be OK. I’m not sure how many other jobs are safe.

  8. As monkeypox cases rise, US health officials are failing again
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/14/opinion/monkeypox-cases-rise-us-health-officials-are-failing-again/
    Shan Soe-Lin Robert Hecht

    The United States is making the same mistake in its response to the monkeypox outbreak, led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as it did with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, by not moving swiftly enough to expand testing and increase awareness.

    There have been more than 900 confirmed cases in the United States and more than 10,000 worldwide. Because of testing and reporting problems, however, the actual number of cases in the United States is undoubtedly much higher.

    Symptoms include fever, headache, chills, and exhaustion before the emergence of a rash and painful blisters and lesions that can last for two to four weeks. While the virus is usually not fatal, it can cause serious illness or death from infections of the brain, bloodstream, or lungs. Reported long-term complications include bronchopneumonia, sepsis, encephalitis, and infection of the cornea with possible loss of vision.

    [snip]

    The majority of the stockpiled doses of smallpox vaccine was mainly reserved to deter bioterrorism threats, not to manage a monkeypox outbreak. Most of the stockpiled vaccine is a live virus vaccine that cannot be used in pregnant women, the immunocompromised, or infants — those who are most vulnerable — and also carries a risk for myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, affecting its ability to beat properly. Only 200,000 doses of the safer vaccine, Jynneos, are available immediately — and while efforts are under way to procure a million doses by the fall, this will still not be enough if a wider campaign is needed.

    [snip]

    Comment: This is a good article, but it assumes positive intent on the part of Dr. Walensky and the Biden administration. What evidence is there of that? There are obvious things they could be doing to stop the spread of monkeypox. They know what those things are. They are not doing those things. What is the only logical conclusion?

  9. New Mutant Covid Variant From India, BA.2.75, Detected In California
    https://deadline.com/2022/07/ba-two-75-new-covid-variant-india-1235063096/
    Tom Tapp

    Just one week after BA.5 had outcompeted all other Covid strains become dominant in the U.S., a new highly-mutated Omicron subvariant has arrived which may begin the cycle all over again.

    BA.2.75 has a large number of mutations when compared to its sister Omicron lineages. Some of those adaptations could allow the virus to bind onto cells more efficiently, said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. BA.2.75 was first sequenced in May in India, where it has spread rapidly.

    [snip]

  10. Top GOP senator slams HHS for ‘disturbing’ response to monkeypox
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3558102-top-gop-senator-slams-hhs-for-disturbing-response-to-monkeypox/
    Joseph Choi

    [snip]

    North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) on Thursday slammed the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for its response to the monkeypox outbreak so far, bemoaning that the agency was “failing to learn from the devastating effects of COVID-19.”

    [snip]

    Burr, who sits on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, criticized the absence of a clear research plan to better understand monkeypox as well as what he perceived to be a lack of communication coming from federal public health officials.

    The senator also took aim at the “reactive” testing response to monkeypox, writing that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was “repeating the same mistakes” it had made during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    [snip]

  11. San Francisco clinics will likely run out of monkeypox vaccine this week, health officials say
    https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_news/san-francisco-clinics-will-likely-run-out-of-monkeypox-vaccine-this-week-health-officials-say/article_6c3b6101-89d8-5485-9068-b827f5261dd8.html
    Madison Hirneisen |

    [snip]

    “Due to a lack of vaccine supply – and what will continue to be a sluggish pace of vaccination due to limited supply going forward – we are veering toward a public health mess of uncontrolled monkeypox spread in our community and many other communities,” Wiener said in a statement.

    [snip]

  12. Stunning spread of BA.5 creates dangerous California COVID wave
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-12/omicron-ba5-coronavirus
    Rong-Gong Lin II, Luke Money July 12, 2022

    Compared to its ancestors, the latest Omicron subvariant, BA.5, may have an enhanced ability to create a large number of copies of the coronavirus once it gets into human cells, a possible contributing factor for why this summer’s Omicron wave has been problematic.

    Far and away the dominant version of the coronavirus circulating nationwide — making up an estimated 65% of new cases over the weeklong period that ended Saturday, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — BA.5 is arguably combining aspects of last summer’s Delta variant with older versions of the highly contagious Omicron family, said Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla.

    [snip]

    Also troublesome were initial data in the Australian study suggesting a reduction in effectiveness of Evusheld, a monoclonal antibody, against BA.5.

    “So that’s another feature of immune escape, is that our monoclonal antibodies don’t work as well,” Topol said.

    [snip]

  13. I’ve believed for years that humans will cease to be the dominant life form on this planet within 500 years. Now, my timeline has shrunk considerably. Dinosaurs ruled the world for millenia – if humans can maintain a relatively functional society for another couple of hundred years, I’d be quite surprised if I were around to notice it. Since I’ll be long dead, it’s just speculation about which I can say – not my circus, not my monkeys. At 71, I figure I don’t have long to wory with it all. Then again, I’ve spent the past 20 years dealing with the long term sequelae of encephalitis, so I think anyone not fearful of long covid isn’t too bright.

    1. The best we can do is give people information so that they can make their own decisions. I believe a selection event is in progress. I’m guessing that the guy who said “If I get corona, I get corona” is going to be making much of a contribution to the human gene pool of the future.

  14. Estimates of long Covid are startlingly high. Here’s how to understand them
    https://www.statnews.com/2022/07/06/understanding-long-covid-estimates/
    Elizabeth Cooney July 6, 2022

    [snip]

    Symptoms linked to long Covid hit bodies from head to toe: brain fog, fatigue, shortness of breath, digestive problems, muscle weakness. The symptoms vary in severity and number, depending on the study. But most patients don’t necessarily have all of them. Some patients don’t have debilitating fatigue, but might report persistent digestive problems they didn’t have before getting Covid.

    [snip]

    “Some of it is going to be visible like, oh, they’re weak, they’re sickly, they can’t walk, they can’t go upstairs,” Duggal said. “Then there’s also long Covid where you have kidney damage now, and the average person walking down the street doesn’t know that.”

    She’s heard people say they don’t know anyone who has long Covid. “I’m like, you probably do.”

    [snip]

    Comment: The short version of the article above is that we really do not have a handle on how many people who are infected get long Covid. It is probably somewhere between 20 and 50%, depending on how you define it. One thing is certain, life expectancies across the world are going to decrease. Given low birth rates, the depopulation of the world will accelerate. Government planners know this. Nonetheless, except for China, they have all decided to go ahead and let this happen.

  15. Monkeypox: Siouxsie Wiles says open borders may mean more cases [New Zealand]
    https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/07/11/monkeypox-siouxsie-wiles-says-open-borders-may-mean-more-cases/
    July 11, 2022

    [snip]

    She [microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles] said New Zealand had expected to see cases because there had been outbreaks overseas. She said more cases could be on the way because the borders are open.

    “What we don’t want is for this to be established in New Zealand.”

    [snip]

    Comment: Change “may” to “will” and the headline says it all. Open borders means monkeypox will establish itself in every country. People hate not having normal everyday lives without internal travel restrictions and having to wear masks. Most citizens of most countries would gladly exchange internal restrictions for closed borders. Unfortunately, the travel industry controls too many politicians. So, we will have open borders and either internal restrictions or rampant spread of increasingly dangerous pathogens.

  16. New Omicron spawn like ‘Centaurus’ and ‘Bad Ned’ may be the reason you have a weird summer cold (or worse)
    https://fortune.com/2022/07/09/centaurus-bad-ned-omicron-covid-ba-2-75-ba-5-3-1-ba275-ba531-variants-subvariants-centaurus-in-us-bad-ned-in-us/
    Erin Prater July 9, 2022 5

    [snip]

    On Tuesday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that new(ish) Omicron subvariant BA.5, which swept South Africa this spring, had finally become dominant in the U.S. after first being detected there in March.

    But there was no chance for the subvariant to celebrate, were it able to. On the same day, the World Health Organization tweeted a video about a new concerning variant surging in India—one giving BA.5, the most highly transmissible, immune-evasive version of COVID yet, a run for its money.

    BA.2.75—dubbed “Centaurus” by some on Twitter—has already arrived in the U.S., the CDC told Fortune on Thursday, with the first of two cases identified on June 14.

    [snip]

    BA.2.75 is “something we should all be concerned about,” Dr. Bruce Walker—director of the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, a medical institute focused on eradicating disease, and co-leader of the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness—told Fortune on Friday.

    The nascent variant “gives us insight into just what the virus is capable of, in terms of mutation. Here again is a virus that has resemblance to the original Omicron variant, but with minor amino acid changes has become something that is likely to be able to evade immunity.”

    “I think what all of these variants are showing us is that the virus has not come anywhere close to exploring all of the evolutionary space available to it.”

    [snip]

    “Centaurus” wasn’t the only COVID subvariant to catch eyeballs this week. The twitterverse—where many doctors, researchers, and data scientists post lengthy threads on COVID-related findings—also saw chatter about BA.5.3.1, aka “Bad Ned.”

    [snip]

    Bad Ned is a spin-off of the BA.5 subvariant currently sweeping the globe. In Germany, where it’s been on the rise since late May, it’s responsible for nearly 80% of BA.5 cases, according to Honey.

    [snip]

    BA.5.3.1 has also been identified in the U.S., a CDC spokesperson told Fortune on Thursday. But it represents less than 5% of BA.5 cases in the U.S., he said.

    Another BA.5 relative that hit radars this week: BA.5.1, which is increasing in prevalence in the U.K., Barouch said.

    “The variants and subvariants are fragmenting quickly,” he said. “There’s not one or two, but hundreds of variants and subvariants.”

    [snip]

    Said Walker: “There are an infinite number of combinations of mutations that can arise that can affect transmissibility and immunity.”

  17. Move over, measles: Dominant Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 could be the most infectious viruses known to man
    https://fortune.com/2022/07/09/is-covid-omicron-more-transmissible-infectious-than-measles-ba4-ba5/
    Erin Prater July 9, 2022

    [snip]

    Globally dominant Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are neck and neck with measles in the competition for the title of most infectious disease known to man, according to an Australian professor of biostatistics and epidemiology.

    The original Wuhan strain of COVID-19 had a reproductive rate—also known as an R0 or R-naught value—of around 3.3, meaning that each infected person infected another 3.3 people, on average. That put COVID-19 among the least transmissible human diseases.

    Slightly less transmissible were the 1918 pandemic strain of flu, which had an estimated R0 of 2, along with Ebola. On the higher end of the spectrum, mumps has an R0 of 12; measles tops the list at 18.

    In order to outcompete, successful COVID variants have become more transmissible with time. Delta had a slightly higher reproductive rate of around 5.1. Then came Omicron, with an reproductive rate almost twice as large: 9.5.

    So called “stealth Omicron,” nicknamed for its ability to evade detection on PCR tests, was about 1.4 times more transmissible than BA.1, so its reproductive rate was around 13.3, Adrian Esterman, a professor at the University of South Australia, recently wrote on academic news website The Conversation.

    New studies suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 have a growth advantage over BA.2 similar to the growth advantage BA.2 had over BA.1. Thus, the latest dominant COVID subvariants have a reproductive rate of around 18.6, tying or surpassing measles, the world’s most infectious viral disease, according to Esterman.

    The next dominant COVID strain should surpass them all. BA.2.75, an ultra-new Omicron subvariant nicknamed “Centaurus” by some on Twitter, made headlines this week after the World Health Organization said it was tracking it. It’s already on the heels of dominant BA.5 in India, with “apparent rapid growth and wide geographical spread,” according to Tom Peacock, a virologist at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Imperial College in London.

    Its reproductive rate is yet unknown.

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