Temporal and quantitative framework for intervention in the Ebola pandemic

The following projection involves estimates based on media accounts of reported cases as well as estimates of unreported cases.

First some assumptions:

1 HCW is needed for every 10 Ebola patients
There are 10,000 to 20,000 patients not receiving care currently.
By mid-November, this number will jump to 100,000-200,000, without immediate intervention.
By some time in January, this number will reach 1-2 million.

Second, some math:

1,000 to 2,000 additional HCWs are needed immediately, as in, on this very day. This number could be reasonably be acheived if it was made a priority.

If additional HCWs are delayed until mid-November, 10,000 to 20,000 HCWs will be required. Although technically possible, it is unlikely that this number could be mobilised.

If additional HCWs are delayed until January, 100,000 – 200,000 will be needed. This number almost certainly will not be acheived.

Conclusion

Plans to plan, plans to meet to plan, speeches about plannning, speeches about potential deployments, promises to deploy at some point in the future are all equally useless. Either HCWs deploy within the next few weeks or Africa is doomed. Plan B will be to let the virus burn through the continent and attempt to limit it to there while more developed countries develop vaccine for their own populations.

That is all.

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2 Comments

Filed under Outbreak, public health

2 responses to “Temporal and quantitative framework for intervention in the Ebola pandemic

  1. walrus

    I banned myself from PFI some years ago and I have no way of contacting the moderators. My advice for you is that the Ebola situation is so serious that CDC have recalled a former employee – an expert on flu pandemic modelling, from my country back to CDC Atlanta – post haste, with wife and family, urgently. immediately or sooner, no questions asked. I pushed this onto your blog about 23 September. I am acquainted with the expert.

    If that information doesn’t indicate the seriousness of the global situation, I don’t know what will.

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