Situation in the United Kingdom – January 1, 2011

In the week since my last report on the situation in the UK, conditions have worsened considerably. Some examples:

From The Mirror, January 2, 2011:

Dr Kevin Morris, of the ­Paediatric Intensive Care Society, said: “We are virtually in a situation where there isn’t a single paediatric ­intensive care bed left in the ­country. This is the worst crisis within living memory.”

[snip]

About one in five of the 305 child intensive care hospital beds is now taken up with critically ill youngsters with suspected swine flu. Last night there were just 15 left.

The system could reach breaking point next week as a boom in cases of both seasonal flu and swine flu in children is expected.

Meanwhile, some surgeries and pharmacies warned yesterday they have run out of the swine flu ­vaccine and Tamiflu medicine.

From The Express, January 2, 2011:

THE NHS was heading for crisis last night with getting on for half the country’s intensive care beds occupied by swine flu victims.

[snip]

Already as many as 800 of the 1,900 intensive care beds in England are being used to treat patients with the H1N1 swine flu virus.

One of the worst affected areas is in children’s emergency services with very sick youngsters having to be transported hundreds of miles for an intensive care bed.

Given these obviously dire circumstances, you might think the British government would be doing everything in its power to stem the spread of this lethal disease.

But you’d be wrong.

Vaccination is one of the simplest and most effective ways to prevent infection. The British government had ample time and resources to obtain enough vaccine for their entire population. However, they have, instead, chosen to vaccinate even fewer people than last year. A recent decision to refuse to vaccinate children under five years old despite the crisis situation has no scientific basis whatsoever. Instead, it is likely driven by their poor planning and inadequate supplies. Claims by the Department of Health that they still have some vaccine left is mere sophistry. They have some left because they have carefully titrated their current recommendations on who should get vaccine based on available supplies. Were they to recommend that everyone who could benefit from vaccination get it, the supplies would be immediately exhausted.

In the absence of adequate supplies of vaccine, the next obvious step would be to keep the schools closed because these are well known incubators for viral dissemination. Incredibly, the Department of Health shows less sense than the average English Mum (The Daily Mail, January 1, 2011:

One mother wrote on internet forum Mumsnet: ‘If the flu gets a lot worse than it is now, keeping some kids off is something that could make a lot of sense.’

Another agreed, saying: ‘It may be a 14-day curfew is better because isolation may be the key to reducing mass infections.’ However, the Department of Health said the NHS can cope and urged children to return to schools and nurseries.

This recommendation by the Department of Health is the equivalent of throwing fuel directly on a fire. The consequences are completely predicatable: a huge surge in cases at at a time when the NHS is already on the verge of collapse.

Health Secretary Andrew Lansley is giving Prime Minister Cameron dreadful advice. If the Prime Minister continues to take it, his government will go down in history as one of the most reckless in British history.

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1 Comment

Filed under Outbreak, public health

One response to “Situation in the United Kingdom – January 1, 2011

  1. cr

    Govts did not, “prevent panic”
    by keeping their public ignorant & unprepared
    – they only guaranteed true Panic:
    the chaos of being unable to meet critical needs
    during a crisis/long emergency/”war-related disaster”.

    [There is only one regime -dear Any New Readers- as Monotreme pointed out earlier, which might imagine it would benefit from a global flu catastrophe-
    or- not care; if they feared they were going down under their own people anyway:
    the CCP/PLA.
    The one that’s mentioned, “Species lethal weapons”- and which didn’t mind destroying their own ecosystem for profit; since they were sure their military purchases & “going out” “softly softly” in sneaky, undeclared, subversion warfare would allow them to buy/take what land and resources from the rest of the world their China now cannot do without. The only nation stockpiling, and, preparing their chosen citizens/cities against, “war-related disasters”. (Why are there all those empty new cities in China; far away from the coastline? Real estate bubble, or, govt contingency planning?)

    The regime that, instead of being sanctioned by the rest of the world for its many abuses, even got control of the WHO,
    and even now, no nation will say it wants vaccines made from very-current strains; not the April, 2009 H1N1 strain Chan had re-used in 2010.

    Flu sequences from cases are still being hidden,
    when they could be made public in real time.

    Unmitigated Flu Pandemic is *not* an effective population cull,
    stupid Powers-that-be; look at the huge medical costs,
    look at the decades of life lost per case, look at the essential/critical infrastructure personnel lost. Banksters happy: with short-term status quo?
    Reality will eventually trump, “public perception”- then what?]

    Antivirals save lives from (pan)Flu – if not delayed.

    The public still does not know antivirals need to be given out without testing
    (just as doctors hand out antibiotics; with no ‘official test results’ nor bacterial id)

    -public should be asking for antivirals, and, trying harder not to infect others,
    exactly because govts refused to stockpile enough Antivirals since H5N1 Alert-

    -did the public ever hear that pre-2009 style, ‘rapid flu test swabs’ mostly cannot detect novel (pan) flu strains?
    that clinicians were Not to use rapid swabs to rule out flu, after April/May 2009;

    they were – to avoid “bad outcomes”- supposed to treat (pan) flu symptoms with antivirals ASAP,
    especially anyone with ‘pre-existing medical conditions’, or pregnancy, or obesity,
    or who had, “any lung involvement” to their ‘flu-like’ illness – that’s their only hope
    – who chose not to make this crystal-clear to the public?

    (The public understands rabies shots need to be taken even if the wild animal that bit got away; waiting at home until someone is so ill they need ICU admission is too late. They would understand being told, “save the rabies vaccine for later” could kill.)

    -Antivirals were best started at once in, “any rapidly worsening case”
    [“before the virus destroys the lungs”~Dr.Nikki Shindo,
    WHO teleconference to ‘journalists’, Nov. 2009. …”A further recommendation we make is that countries decentralize the distribution of antivirals
    and insure that general practitioners have access to these medicines for their patients.
    Patients should not need to visit a hospital in order to get antivirals prescribed,” Dr.Shindo said- Nov. 2009 ]

    since, (as the general public seems kept in the dark about by their govt, and, unethical, ‘public hellth’ officials, and, the collaborating media, )
    “very healthy” immune systems are actually the ones most as risk of very rapid death
    from cytokine disruption; once their body does finally realize a novel dangerous virus they have no immunity against has got into their lungs and is rapidly spreading
    – why wasn’t the public told this?

    Healthy, “fit” people, in prime of life, have been killed by “flu” since Outbreak; spring 2009. Killed by *viral* pneumonia, or by heart attacks, before they even get admitted: because they did not get Antivirals in time.

    I think the May 22, 2009 WHO Epidemiology Report on H1N1 still shows what Mexico looked like: 2% CFR, before timely Antivirals were used (even if Chan’s WHO pushed the reset button and ignored all the many cases/deaths the Mexican health system had logged before the WHO showed up.)

    Without timely Antivirals, UnMitigated Pandemic is causing maximum harm.

    Places barely made it through late 2009 (ask ICU doctors), now, here we go again.

    Usually, 90% of the “flu” deaths are age 65 and older.
    Since PanFlu H1N1, and now, other odd H3N2 & flu B strains are about,
    the deaths are alarmingly staying 90% Under age 65
    – and far too many deaths under age 50, age 40 , age 30,
    even “healthy” children, et cetera.

    Preventable deaths: timely Antivirals save lives from severe flu strains.

    Stories of, “shock, shock” at these sufferings and deaths are only allowed in the media if a vaccine campaign is on;
    never to educate that timely Antivirals are the only thing that can save lives from the (pan) flu strains we are stuck with for the forseeable future.

    Not only do we need Antivirals
    (possibly double-dose/-duration used for “seasonal” flu;
    that is what H5N1 in humans has been taking;
    those monthly H5N1 cases and h-h clusters are not making the public’s front burner either – who benefits from downplaying ‘Bird’ & Beasts & People Flu?
    The travel industry? Stock market CEOs?
    Public hasn’t read, with human H5N1 cases every month, if/when Containment fails, they risk being stranded in nations which cannot take care of their own -not that any nation can, but, wouldn’t you rather be at home during a disaster ?
    The public doesn’t know their embassies will Not provide citizens with food, water nor medical care.
    US policy since July, 2006, but, don’t ask Americans getting groped and irradiated at the airports if they’ve read that State Dept, ‘in the event of a severe Pandemic’ page)
    -we need an antiviral course “on hand” for every person,

    and, we need new kinds of antivirals;

    for when the gene snips get around that can, in as little as one year to the next, sweep an antiviral resistance around the globe via ‘natural’ means –
    not caused by doctors saving lives -and hospital costs- by treating flu cases in time
    (if doctors really cared about ‘not creating resistant strains’,
    they’d make patients households Isolate themselves until treatment completed/not shedding virus, and, workplaces/schools would allow it;
    those, “Community Mitigation” plans were supposed to be made actionable by now; except ‘leaders’ chose
    *Business-as-normal (Until crash and burn)*, instead.
    In places without sanitation where “Tamiflu blankets” against H5N1 result in antivirals going back into surface water > animals, well…
    Where the new classes of Antivirals at?)

    Pandemic lasted 3 years, WWI-era: pay no attention to Chan calling ours ‘over’.

    Our population is larger and travels more; millions of factory-farm animals
    (H5N1 & H1N1 PanFlu are multi-mammal species) more pets, more people-smuggling, more ‘terrorism’ for distraction, and, unethical nations can make dangerous flu strains in labs -“flu” which cannot be identified for sure as natural or man-made.

    The same bad, short-sighted (& evil) reasons the public in any nation wasn’t
    told Preparedness is critical since H5N1 Pandemic Alert in 2005 –
    that why the public isn’t educated enough to be demanding
    Antivirals for “rapidly-worsening” ‘flu’?

    [Nor were public/local politicians/first responders informed that the,
    since-2006
    (after the first-ever S.Korean WHO Dir. Gen keeled over at the podium;
    without raising the Alert level after the first documented human-to-human-to-human H5N1 cluster in Karo, Indonesia the week before)
    Chinese govt-controlled WHO
    had “redefined” the pandemic Alert phases;
    so that we were in the last one before (H5N1) Pandemic Start;
    2005-def. Phase 3 = 2005-def. Phase 5 as of July, 2008 ?

    Declaring ‘Phase 4’ April, 2009 = 2005-def. Phase 6 (Pandemic Outbreak),

    except, no place had done their old Phase 3 to 5 checklists
    after the July, 2008 ‘clarification’: thank corrupt “public hellth”.
    -Why were things done this way?
    “Reasons” that only hurt a nation’s security
    and its ability to survive a long-forseen danger?]

    -nor did the public hear that prior household and local Preparedness
    for “JIT” disruption and, “extended periods” in, “dire conditions”; with, “no outside aid possible” was, “critical”?

    (Issues which ‘democratic’ election campaigns could not even ‘say their names’?)

    The hospital costs and deaths (and, the major-impacts on some survivors)
    from 2009 to present, and tomorrow, were all avoidable;

    -if the public had sought care at onset
    or any “worsening” of panflu symptoms (which do not have to include, ‘fever’) and,
    -if doctors has done the right thing
    and given Antivirals within 48 hours of onset or ASAP.

    Antivirals, *before* the virus, “destroys the lungs” would have saved those lives, would have saved those lengthy hospital costs, would have prevented the long-term consequences of each mistreated case, and all those of the non-flu cases that couldn’t get care during surges.

    Never was ‘waiting for official confirmation’ to give the only effective treatment available an ethical medical practice for ‘the flu’ since Outbreak in 2009.

    Antivirals, in time, and enough of them, are the only treatment that could save people’s lungs, lives, children, parents, or Critical Infrastructure’s essential workers.

    Timely effective treatment
    prevents regions’ and nations’ hospital facilities from being
    (as foreseen in all the disease Outbreak tabletops taxpayers paid for since 2005 or 2001 or 1997,)
    overwhelmed to the point of systems collapse,
    (and, of course, Timely effective treatment helps delay overwhelming the mortuary sector. Unfortunately, taxpayer-funded officials are only, “hoping” “the military” will have time to come make “mass graves”- despite that being a Local responsibility).

    Delaying Antivirals for ‘flu’ in 2009-2011 ethical medical practice? – it is anything but.

    Those ICU beds are not usually empty.
    Those ventilators and ECMOs did not go unused pre-Pandemic.

    When they are filling up with “flu” cases (because of Willful Blindness/malpractice)
    people are dying who previously might have been saved:
    either because hospitals are delaying admissions,
    or because people are getting taken off vents; because someone with a better chance of survival, comes along.
    [Or, the vent drugs may run short, or too many staff might fall ill – plenty of ‘system failure’ points; including cyber attack of the grid; if WWIII comes along…]

    No ammount of ‘risk kommunikation’ propaganda is going to “manage” the public’s Outrage; once the numbers impacted during a “flu” peak get past a tipping point…

    The UK is a ‘modern’ nation -many places will do even worse.

    Who benefits most by not alarming the public of the right actions to take
    against a clear and present danger?

    If there is not enough vaccine, or, if it is no longer a good match for the worst strains,
    or, if there is now no time to order/make/deliver enough Antivirals,
    then
    Community Mitigation needs to be attempted;
    cases must be reduced; one way or another.

    Waiting until the public personally sees so many cases/deaths that they fear infection is too late to take proper actions.

    Get serious about Infection Control at the borders;
    national, regional, and, those of businesses, schools, and homes.

    I say it’s, “Too bad” that Influenza being Contagious Before Symptoms,
    and, being Airborne-contagious in low absolute humidity
    are facts, “too hard” for ‘officials’
    -reality has to be dealt with.
    (Do govts just “Plan To Fail” in events they do not see any personal profit to be made in preparing society? How many charged with planning for Pandemic have retired and are enjoying their pensions now? How many are still getting paid to tell the public the system, “can cope” and to, “stay in school”, work, shop, travel: no warnings?
    No timely Antivirals…)

    Planning should have been done, since at least 2005, for H5N1’s CFR.
    (“Unprecedented”: Fatal untreated in time;
    for example, before Indonesia stopped honest reporting, delays in treatment were showing
    80% CFR possible, even with donated Antivirals on govt shelves.)

    Doing as much Preparedness as possible for H5N1 would have had places quite ready to Mitigate H1N1 Pandemic, which the WHO wrote as 2%CFR in Mexico as of May 22, 2009.
    It was not, “the same” for govt officials to say, “for discussion purposes” when ‘planning’ that “>2% CFR” “covered” 100% fatal untreated H5N1.
    Nor would responses be, “the same” for a 2% CFR as for a 80 to 100% CFR ! )
    Yet the public never heard this was what officials were claiming when challenged. )

    (Never thought I’d see mass malpractice in 1st-world nations
    which once upon a time had ‘free press’. So many lives lost, needlessly!)

    Nation need to re-start their manufacturing:
    meet their Critical needs domestically, or only do ‘free trade ‘ with Free Nations.

    Use Antivirals; while they still work.

    Repent, officials: and pull the “up to 12 weeks per wave” Community Mitigation plans
    out from under the govts’ carpets and inform the public; better late than never.

    Doing so can spare the hospitals,
    critical care units, mortuary sector, and,
    society, which needs all the help it can get this year.

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