It’s not over in South America

Although much of South America is in the Southern Hemisphere, not all of it is. Most of Colombia is in the Northern Hemisphere. Their flu deaths have not stopped.

From Colombia Reports, October 6, 2009

Colombian authorities anounced Tuesday that the number of swine flu fatalities raised to 101, while 2,142 infected cases have been confirmed since the outbreak May.

Colombia has a case fatality rate of 4.7%, just in case anyone’s interested.


3 thoughts on “It’s not over in South America

  1. Why do you believe Colombia’s number of confirmed cases has any basis in reality?

    Surely as a scientist, you would want better denominator data before announcing a CFR.

    On the other hand, if you are right, then the attack rate of this virus must be vanishingly low. Which would be good news, if the CFR is as high as you calculate.

  2. numbers lurker, I do want better denominator data. I have repeatedly asked why the CDC refuses to do a seroprevalence study. No answer. However, the limited data we do have suggests that phone surveys are worthless and the CFRs are much higher than seasonal flu.

    I do think that only a tiny fraction of the world’s population has been infected, thus far. Most of the outbreaks have been in schools. I am not aware of any large outbreaks among adults anywhere. None in office buildings. None at conventions. None in hotels. None in nursing homes. None among adults anywhere. Why this is, I don’t know. However, there is some reason to believe this may change. There was a report in a Mexican publication yesterday suggesting the current wave of infection has a higher attack rate than the previous one. If this is correct, then I expect a higher CFR in this wave because the CFRs are much higher among adults than children.

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