Monthly Archives: October 2009

Multiplying errors

Posted on October 31, 2009 by

There are two ways to estimate of how many people have been infected with pandemic influenza: 1. Actually measure how many people have been infected by examining their blood for evidence of antibodies against the virus (seroprevalence study). or 2. … Continue reading →

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Situation in Ukraine – October 30, 2009

Posted on October 30, 2009 by

There have been recent reports of deaths from the pandemic H1N1 virus in the Ukraine, in the western oblast of Ternopil. The number of confirmed dead varies from 1 to 11 to 30. However, even if 30 are confirmed, this … Continue reading →

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Another report of more virulent pandemic virus in India

Posted on October 29, 2009 by

Back in September, I wrote a blog that included a report from India suggesting that mutations in the H1N1 pandemic virus were causing rapid death. Now, a new report from India, also suggests that the virus is becoming more virulent. … Continue reading →

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The CDC tells CBS to Talk to the Hand

Posted on October 28, 2009 by

From a CBS blog by Sharyl Attkisson, October 27, 2009: In August 2009, CBS News made a simple request of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for public documents, e-mails and other materials CDC used to communicate to states … Continue reading →

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Why no large outbreaks among adults?

Posted on October 27, 2009 by

High rates of absenteeism among essential workers has been identified as one of the greatest dangers of a pandemic. If there aren’t enough people to keep the heat on and the water flowing, there could be large numbers of deaths, … Continue reading →

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A thousand Memorial Hospitals now – What will your number be?

Posted on October 26, 2009 by

We have often heard the slogan: “A pandemic will be like a thousand Katrinas at the same time”.  But what does this mean? Concretely, it means that there won’t be enough essential services for those who need them. We have … Continue reading →

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Preparing for mass casualties

Posted on October 25, 2009 by

Counting of pandemic flu cases indicates that the number of Americans becoming infected is now increasing at an exponential rate. This has started within the last two weeks. Because deaths usually lag infections by several weeks, we won’t see most … Continue reading →

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President Obama declares a national emergency with respect to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza

Posted on October 24, 2009 by

Here is the text of the document (from Politico): THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release October 24, 2009 DECLARATION OF A NATIONAL EMERGENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE 2009 H1N1 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC – – – – … Continue reading →

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1,000 dead and still counting

Posted on October 23, 2009 by

Over 1,000 Americans have been killed by the pandemic H1N1 virus, so far. You wouldn’t know this by checking the CDC website. They’ve cut up the deaths into arbitrary dates. And many States aren’t reporting their deaths to the CDC. … Continue reading →

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Overestimating cases, underestimating case fatality rate

Posted on October 21, 2009 by

As I’ve argued before, estimates of case fatality rate based on influenza-like illness are wrong. This is because lots of viruses cause similar symptoms to influenza. Even allergies can be mistaken for a mild case of the flu. Remarkably, CBS … Continue reading →

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