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Monthly Archives: August 2009
Total Number of Expected Deaths
Predicting the total number of deaths in a pandemic would seem to be an easy thing to do assuming you know two things: the clinical attack rate (CAR) and the case fatality rate (CFR). The first number tells you what … Continue reading
Posted in public health, Schools, Science
Tagged age, CAR, case fatality rate, CDC, CFR, clinical attack rate, deaths, demographics, H1N1, lethality, mortality, swine flu
2 Comments
Age Structure and Case Fatality Rate
When claims are made that the new H1N1 virus is “mild”, we are often told that between 20,000 and 50,000 people die every year of seasonal influenza. What we are rarely told is that 90% of these deaths occur in … Continue reading
Posted in Science
Tagged age, case fatality rate, CFR, demographics, H1N1, lethality, mortality, swine flu
4 Comments
Pandemic Update – August 9, 2009
There have been at least 1,756 deaths due to the new H1N1 virus. There have been at least 437 deaths in the United States. 95 of these have been in California, including a nurse. However, New York City is no … Continue reading
A public announcement from the Venetian Disease and Witchcraft Prevention Council
We here at the Venetian Disease and Witchcraft Prevention Council (VDWPC) wish to address some issues concerning the recent reports of a so-called “Black Death”. First, let’s start with the name. It’s over-the-top hyperbole. If it is necessary to refer … Continue reading
The Cynical CDC
The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. Oscar Wilde Today, the CDC announced that it would recommend that schools attempt to stay open, even though it is certain that the virus will spread rapidly this … Continue reading
China’s quarantines – Do they know something we don’t?
We’ve all heard the stories about the strict quarantines imposed by the Chinese government on travelers arriving on planes to China. Spacesuit wearing “inspectors” check passengers for temperatures. Even people who sat a few rows away from someone with a … Continue reading
High incidence, low case fatality rate countries
What percent of the people who get sick with pandemic flu will die? When we talk about how dangerous a virus is, this number, the case fatality rate (CFR), is usually provided to quantify the risk. This CFR is of … Continue reading
Posted in Outbreak, Science
Tagged Australia, CFR, Costa Rica, H1N1, mortality rate, swine flu, UK, Uruguay
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Spread and incidence of pandemic flu
News stories typically state with great assurance that the new H1N1 virus originated in Mexico. But what is the data supporting this assertion? Well, the earliest samples identified with the virus came from patients in Mexico. But does that mean … Continue reading
Pandemic Update – August 3, 2009
There have been at least 1,497 deaths due to the new H1N1 virus. There have been at least 383 deaths in the US. 88 of these are in California. However, New York City appears to have ceased reporting its deaths. … Continue reading
The Numbers Game
As I wrote in one of my previous blogs, Counting on Counting, one of the most important functions of public health is to gather data on new cases of a disease. In mid-July, the WHO stopped counting new cases and … Continue reading
Posted in Outbreak, pathology, public health
Tagged CDC, CFR, ECDC, H1N1, statistics, swine flu, WHO
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